March 21, 2003
As the weeping executioners slammed the door on microwave oven, the entire world seems to be watching with fascination how Baghdad fries inside. Meanwhile, both DOW and dollar continue to their 1000pt rallies. DOW is likely to rise up to 8700 before turning downside for an inevitable correction, in which case 8300 level will be the initial support, followed by 8000 as the maximum downside floor. Once breaking above 102.00 resistance as it has done, Dollar Index will move to target 104.00 level. The sooner it reaches there, the more definitively 104.00 will turn back USD to the downside. The sudden sell-off in JPY from 118.00 to 121.00 is to provide bargain-hunting opportunities in the 123.00s, if JPY is sold to that level next week. The 120.00-119.00 area will be the support zone to check against the counter buying wave from the border of 123.00. A similar move may also be seen in CAD, which will see itself first sold through 1.5000 and then bought back in the 1.5100s. AUD is still hanging in the low 0.5900s, pending a further slide to 0.5800. Its movement next week will not be as volatile as others, fluctuating between 0.5950 and 0.5780. Dollar Index' rise to 104.00 level, if it is to take place, will most likely translate to the levels of EUR 1.0200, SWF 1.4350, and GBP 1.5400. To buy into dollar's highly expected strength (provided a smooth sailing through the war), traders can still be advised to seize and sell opportunities near EUR 1.0660 and SWF 1.3800. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0660, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3800, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy EUR at 1.0200, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.4350, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5400, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy JPY at 123.00, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.5130, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 14, 2003
No war has ever gathered so much negativity against it before it is ever started than the one that was tossed around at the horse-shoe UN table this week. It is dragged on too long over too many issues (ranging from disarmament to democracy to liberation to regime change to rebuild nation to sand storm) to be taken seriously by the market that finally had enough of it. As UK and US try to find a way to climb down the tall ladder, it seems now highly likely that peace will be the name of the game. On that note, the long oversold USD is bouncing back with a fury across the board. Dollar has rallied so much from its weakest levels that the move might have finally set in motion its long-expected upside correction that we had failed to catch against the rising majors. The belated divergence chart for EUR has also joined GBP's in playing out its anticipated downward move, after re-establishing a second double-top formation in the 1.1000s. Sellers will now use the border of 1.0900 as a re-entry point to try to catch another pending downside move to test 1.0670. If this 1.0670 level breaks down, then an eventual but timely retreat to 1.0200 support will become a reality (see Weekly Charts). Likewise, SWF may now be sold from 1.3500 to 1.3800. Breaking above the latter will allow sellers to chase buyers back up to 1.4350 in a hurry. GBP is now limited under 1.6000, with sellers trying to press their weight upon the 1.5800 support. Their effort may be made to make way for a retest of its channel support line at 1.5700. JPY bounced off its channel support in the mid 116.00s to retest 119.00, a resistance that holds against the retest of 121.30. It will use the mid- 117.00 level to regroup seller interest to push for another upside move above 119.00. Buyers for both AUD and CAD took the lead this week to dump their holdings ahead of European buyers. Having rushed down to 0.5900, AUD will likely to recharge itself to no more than mid-0.6000 level before turning for an eventual return to 0.5800 support. Similarly, CAD was sold from its strongest level of 1.4600 to the border of 1.4900. Sellers are clearly aiming for a return to retest the 1.5000-100 zone. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0900, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3500, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6000, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 7, 2003
The newly released US jobless number reflected both an economic slowdown and an economy's concern to the prospect of another oil war. The latest war dance, as loud as it seems to be getting, has come to a tiptoed bluffing game between Tom and Jerry. Both posturing, and daring to back down still. Thus far, investors' reaction has been to stay with the majors while shunning DOW and dollar. As mentioned throughout the week, DOW is widely expected to test 7500 and probe below it until the clarity of the pending war becomes known. USD in its own right stands ready for further retreat to EUR 1.1300s, SWF 1.2700s, GBP 1. 6500s, JPY 115.00s, CAD 1.4300s, and AUD 0.6300s. Again, for the immediate coming session next week the majors continue to push for EUR 1.1170/GBP 1.6180/SWF 1.3230/JPY 116.00/CAD 1.4600/AUD 0.6200. At this time of great tension and uncertainty we caution viewers to be extra careful and patient. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

 

February 28, 2003
The European majors were narrowly traded this week against USD. In doing so, however, they all managed to jam themselves into the point of next breakout moves. The looming liberation war continued to weigh down GBP in favor of EUR and SWF, while the trio of AUD/CAD/JPY sneaked up on USD. With more of the same in the picture next week, the market will either wind itself to a flat line or have to go some places. GBP now looks good for a dip to 1.5400, after first testing 1.5600 next week. Both technically ready and overdue for a corrective sell-off, EUR and SWF are also poised to make another visit to their previous peak (1.0950 and 1.3400). It will be up to the war jitters to swing the trading one way or the other. The market's technical outlook changed very little this week from that of last week's. For further illustrative details, please reviews our comments on Weekly/Monthly Charts. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Hold EUR 1.0720 sell, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Sold CAD at 1.4850, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0820, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell AUD at 0.6100, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 21, 2003
GBP's bearish divergence, although delayed (as shown on its divergence chart), finally played out its full blown downside aftermath this week. Breaking below 1.5850 support, GBP sellers may signal their willingness to carry fight next week down to 1.5600 where a channel support line may help to re-boost buyers' confidence. EUR on the other hand, aided by its unwillingness to jump into war, actually enjoyed a bit more of a "safe haven" status than USD by refusing to give in to its own dragged-out bearish divergence. In so doing, however, it is actually offering more selling opportunities for those who have yet to counter-trade against its stubborn rise. As mentioned in our Weekly Charts, EUR sellers will have a lot more room to recover to the downside (1.0350) than buyers to the upside (1.1000). Likewise, SWF buyers are being pushed back above 1.3600 after a daring dash down to the low 1.3500s this week. A retreat above 1.3700 would trigger a landslide sell-off to 1.4000. Dipping down into the 118.00s, JPY is mute on clues for its next moves, except that its wider range will be 117.00-120.00 for the coming week. Meanwhile, AUD buyers are pushing once again for the border of its upper channel resistance just under 0.6000. It is quite conceivable for AUD to rise up one more notch to 0.6100 (as illustrated in the Monthly Charts) before turning into a downside correction for 0.5800 support. CAD buyers on the other hand is pressing upon their own benchmark support of 1.5000. If they make it below, buyers then stand to enjoy a fast gain to 1.4850. If not, sellers will swing the action back to 1.5200-300 with ease. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Took profit on EUR's 1.0820 sell position at 1.0760.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0820, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell AUD at 0.6080, RRR-100/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Hold EUR 1.0720's sell position, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 14, 2003
This has been another choppy week that washed out many of our efforts to catch a ride in one way or another. To re-orient our overview of the market, however, we find that despite the confusions arising from disparity between DOW/USD and GBP/EUR, a clearer picture is consistently revealing itself. That is, the mighty dollar is about to rise with or without the War. The key concern is that before the final roar to sound of USD's rally, may it be spooked down to such technically viable targets of EUR 1.1000, CAD 1.5000, and AUD 0.6100 (see Monthly Charts). If so, should the dollar buyers take a calculated chance to risk their positions all the way to these levels. For SWF and GBP sellers, their risk levels will be either below SWF 1.3500 or above GBP 1.6350. The latter by the way might have signaled the pending USD rally by remaining itself subdued throughout the week, courtesy of its own war stance, a BOE rate cut, and a prolonged bearish divergence that is finally working. Should GBP's sell off be of any hint of what may be coming for the rest of the majors, then it is not difficult to foresee the coming of USD to the levels of EUR 1.0350, SWF 1.4000, GBP 1.5850, AUD 0.5770, and CAD 1.5400. More complete commentaries are posted on our Weekly Charts. Please review them as always. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to sell EUR 1.1020, RRR-50/+500pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR 1.0920, RRR-150/+400pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR 1.0820, RRR-200/+300pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 7, 2003
This week was marked by choppy sessions amid market's uneasy feelings of tragedy in space and war on Iraq. With both being foregone conclusions, the market is holding no more reservations about departing further away from DOW 8000 level to the downside. Even that newly released better-than-expected US jobless numbers didn't help to persuade buyers to hang around. In technical terms, once below 8000, DOW is embarking on a certain journey to land on the lower support of 7500 before stabilizing. 8000 on the other hand will now stand as a resistance for sellers to re-enter the market. Needless to say, this renewed bearishness in DOW will likely disrupt the USD recovery that is long overdue. The worst-case scenario in the coming week would see EUR and SWF breaking news ground against USD to the levels of EUR 1.1070 and SWF 1.3270. GBP's strength on the other hand should be kept under 1.6500 as Tony is having a little hard time to call up a liberation army to free Iraq. CAD was choppy up and down 1.5200 throughout the week; once its 1.5100-000 area gets tested, CAD will have a great chance to swing upward for a sizeable correction (targeting 1.5400s). AUD too is flirting with its own benchmark level of 0.6000, which attracts the interests of both buyers who want to get there from 0.5800 and sellers who would like to sell there for 0.5800. JPY looks ready to back its way up to 121.30-70 where a trend line should limit its further upside move (see Weekly Charts). Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to buy EUR at 1.0730, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.3570, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.6200, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.1070, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3270, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6470, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 31, 2003
The market moved just far enough last session to avoid triggering our SWF 1.3530 sell entry while rendering our GBP 1.6500 sell position a loss; otherwise, both would have been profitable. With such a consistency and regularity, the latest "coincident" does make one wonder at awe whether viewers' concern may hold some truth, namely, open trade plans may expose them to more losses than not. Truth be told, we are clueless as to what to believe, except to move on as we always have. The mighty DOW reached down to 8000 support this week as expected. Before abandoning it, however, the market is willing and waiting to hear what Secretary Powell has to say about Iraq next week. Hence, DOW is given a chance to recover a bit at the start of next week, possibly to the border to 8300 level (see Weekly Charts). USD on the other hand is also showing healthy signs of recovery, finally. Massive sell-off moves can be seen particularly in SWF who, with 1.3500 standing as a support, can easily bounce back above 1.4000. Likewise, buyers for EUR and GBP also appear to be looking over each other's shoulders for back-stabbing opportunities. The downside supports of EUR 1.0350 and GBP 1.6200 can quickly come up into play, should they suddenly run for exits. Settling near JPY 120.00 from 118.00 level, JPY is clearing aiming for 121.30 next week. Its buyers are now better advised to wait for their next turn along the upward trend line in the Weekly Charts. AUD too appears to have entered the sell mode, readying itself for a touchdown in the support zone of 0.5800-0.5750 soon. CAD, though, remains choppy within the narrow range of 1.5300-200. Outside this range, a fast move of 150pts would result in the direction of breakout. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Cut loss on GBP's 1.6500 sell position at 1.6570.
Wait to sell EUR 1.0800, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF 1.3580, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP 1.6600, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 24, 2003
DOW's 8500 support performed poorly to hold against sellers, leaving 8000 support wide open for further assaults. Most likely the DOW 8000 level will be tested next week, and its performance will decide whether DOW will trade at 8500 or 7500 soon. On the currency front, the world seems to be siding with the euro over the Iraq war issue. Amid the dispute between US and France/Germany, dollar was being pushed steadily through all our anticipated "last stand" barriers, thanks to the absence of USD buyers. It appears that only dollar sellers themselves can spook each other into back-stabbing exit when they get done with the dollar selling. By then, it is anyone's guess how much further USD will have been sold to. For now, and based on our Monthly Charts, the European majors could be technically bought to EUR 1.1080/GBP 1.6700/SWF 1.3000 against the dollar. Meanwhile, the divergence patterns on EUR and GBP's daily charts are being prolonged while still holding intact. We will continue to update these two charts in our Weekly Charts to see how they will end eventually. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Sold EUR at 1.0800, and cut loss at 1.0850.
Sold GBP at 1.6300, and cut loss at 1.6350.