April 2 2003
DOW and dollar regained some of their lost composure amid last session's slow trading. Accordingly, their strength firmed just enough for buyers to get ready for re-entries in European majors. The targets of next European rallies continue to be EUR 1.1150, GBP 1.6000, and SWF 1.3200, whereas their buy entries may be slightly upgraded to EUR 1.0800, GBP 1.5700, and SWF 1.3650. AUD will likely be sold at AUD 0.6100 and CAD at 1.4620. JPY's 117.00 support should see some choppy actions between buyers and sellers. Stay tuned.

Bought GBP at 1.5730, and took profit at 1.5770.
Wait to buy EUR at 1.0800, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5700, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.3650, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.1150, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6000, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3200, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

April 1 2003
As expected in our last Weekly Show, both DOW and dollar resumed their last week's slide at this week's open. As DOW retested its 8000 support, Dollar Index dipped down to test its 99.00 level. Closing below 8000, DOW now has no significant support (maybe 7700) to prevent a pending slide back down to 7500. Dollar Index' weak stance at 99.00 also lends support to rising majors which appear poised to go for EUR 1.1150, GBP 1.6000, and SWF 1.3200. However, AUD and CAD buying should limit itself under AUD 0.6100 and above CAD 1.4600. JPY is the wild card for the week; it will test 117.00 but could advance as far down as mid 115.00s, and its upside maximum ceiling this week will be 119.00 and 120.00. Stay tuned.

Sold EUR at 1.0800, and cut loss at 1.0850.
Wait to buy EUR at 1.0830, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5730, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.3630, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.1150, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6000, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3200, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 28 2003
Like the soldiers in the sand storm, the market sat where it stood for another session. If GBP's moderate selling last session must be taken as any hint, then both EUR and SWF may be weakened slightly more as well in the next session. Hence sellers' entry levels could be upgraded to EUR 1.0800/SWF 1.3750/GBP 1.5730. Buyers will have to wait for their turns at EUR 1.0500/SWF 1.4000/GBP 1.5470. Those who can't wait to buy will look in the direction of JPY, CAD, and AUD for near term opportunities. JPY buyers may do a touchdown at 119.00, while AUD's buying could but should push no higher above 0.6030. CAD in its own right appears to be retesting 1.4600 support, possibly advancing to 1.4550, before sellers come into to take over. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0800, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5730, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3750, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy EUR at 1.0500, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5470, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.4000, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 27 2003
Sandstorm slowed down ally's troop, as such, the financial market did not go anywhere in either direction, patiently waiting for the war in Iraq to develop before deciding which direction to go next.  Dollar still has strong support at EUR 1.0870, GBP 1.5900 and SWF 1.3630 and we will keep yesterday's trading plan intact and plan to sell the trio against the Dollar at these prices. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0870, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5900, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3630, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 26 2003
As expected, USD regained strength after first retreating further into the EUR 1.0700s and SWF 1.3700s, barely missing our awaiting sell order at SWF 1.3730. The coming session will likely see more of the same choppy patterns, courtesy of the ongoing media war between friends and foes of Al Jazeera. Both DOW and dollar will extend their rallies, but better prices to enter buy positions may still be obtained at the levels of 8000 for DOW and 99.50 for Dollar Index. The latter would be the equivalence of EUR 1.0870, GBP 1.5920, and SWF 1.3630. Meanwhile, dollar's near term peak should be near EUR 1.0520, GBP 1.5630, and SWF 1.3930. AUD buyers on the other hand may probe 0.6030 and CAD to test 1.5730. JPY sellers cannot go above 122.00, and its buyers will have a hard to move below 119.00. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0870, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5900, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3630, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 25 2003
The surreally televised turns and twists over the weekend have all but killed any prospect of a quick end to the "America-Iraq War" (as it is called by some third-party media). As the race to Baghdad begins to eerily resemble the reminisce of Battle of Stalingrad in the last century, the financial market starts to unload some of its DOW and dollar holdings as expected. Dropping below 8300 support, DOW will touch back down to the 8000 level soon. Also as we predicted, USD retreated to or near EUR 1.0660 and SWF 1.3800. There appears to be now a strong possibility that dollar is to weaken 100pts further to EUR 1.0770 and SWF 1.3730. Stay tuned.

Sold EUR at 1.0660, and took profit at 1.0640.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0770, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3730, RRR-50/+150pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 21 2003
As expected, the war time USD will rise and fall on Saddam's survivability or lack thereof. Last session's dollar rose on the news of impulsive air raid to snuff out Saddam, but it fell on the colossal failure to pull off the super fast one as the survivor himself emerged without a smoked face. If this is what is to come throughout the war, there would be a lot more uncertainties of its outcome ahead. So, too, will be market's reaction to it. The temporary dollar weakness provided its buyers an opportunity to re-enter their positions at our expected levels of EUR 1.0670 and SWF 1.3800. In case of another unforeseen surprise from the battlefield, USD may be pushed even lower to the levels of EUR 1.0720, SWF 1.3700, and GBP 1.5800. DOW on the hand has reached 8300 as we anticipated. It should bend here for a correctional touchdown at 8000. If not, the 8500-8670 area will be the targeted zone for the bulls to explore. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Sold EUR at 1.0670, and took profit at 1.0610.
Sold SWF at 1.3800, and took profit at 1.3880.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0720, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3700, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5800, RRR-100/+300pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 20 2003
DOW is pausing for the war to start before moving in to reach 8300. Likewise, USD is readying itself for the next breakthrough to advance to targets of EUR 1.0200, SWF 1.4350, GBP 1.5400, AUD 0.5800, CAD 1.5000, and JPY 123.00. Until then, JPY alone weakened suddenly against dollar, retreating above 120.00 level to target 121.30. The latter is preventing a run to 123.00. Sellers' re-entry levels for the European majors are upgraded to EUR 1.0670/SWF 1.3800/GBP 1.5700. From March to May, dollar's rise and fall will depend a lot on Saddam's fall and rise. Economic repercussion will take over after that. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0670, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3800, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5700, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 19 2003
Citing presidential oath and congressional resolution as what pushed him over the edge, Bush sounded prepared in his ultimatum for a possible less than rosy aftermath to whipping out Saddam, mindful of Osama the caveman who's still digging. The market in its own right would have none of the concerns for the time being, as it continues to recover the US holdings ahead of the next Blitzkrieg. Now that Fed decided to leave its rate unchanged amid the fog of war, DOW looks certain to reach 8300, while Dollar Index is poised to retest 102.00. Beyond these resistance, buyers would be determined to go for their next targets of DOW 8500 and Dollar Index 104.00. In terms of the majors, the latter two levels would be the equivalence of EUR 1.0200, SWF 1.4350, GBP 1.5400, AUD 0.5800, CAD 1.5000, and JPY 121.30. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0720, RRR-50/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3750, RRR-50/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5730, RRR-50/+300pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 18 2003
The market finally saw the end of the road to war and turned to unwind its wire-tight war tension by flocking back to the badly oversold dollars. It will now lean back to watch on tubes the gladiator fight that is still bluffing to take place. Until then and thereafter, USD is to regain its previously lost strength by rolling back to EUR 1.0200, SWF 1.4350, and GBP 1.5400. While AUD and CAD may be mildly sold to the borders of AUD 0.5800 and CAD 1.5000, JPY could also join USD to benefit from some "safe-haven" buying. Its selling will likely have a maximum ceiling of JPY 120.00, with the 116.30-115.50 standing as support cushion for buyers to weather out the sand storm. Meanwhile, USD buyers can seek out re-entry opportunities near EUR 1.0720, SWF 1.3730, and GBP 1.5800, courtesy of a possible FOMC rate cut in the coming session. From here on, USD's rally path can only be clouded by uncertainty of when the war will start and how clean it will end. It would be the ultimate game of catch and chase if the latter accepts the exile invitation only to buy more time for the tease. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0720, RRR-50/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3730, RRR-50/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5800, RRR-50/+300pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 14 2003
The market finally couldn't wait any longer for the war dust to start or settle. Upon hearing that the wait for UN's vote is beyond next Monday, buyers wasted no time to offload their overbought European positions. In doing so, they may have started the dollar correction that was derailed and prolonged by the war anxiety. AUD and CAD will continue to lead the selling effort, targeting AUD 0.5800 and CAD 1.5020. The European majors on the other hand will have a near selling targets of EUR 1.0800/SWF 1.3630/GBP 1.6200. Fence-sitters may be well advised to jump into the selling crowd, if and when choppy buying activities ahead provide second entry opportunities at EUR 1.0980/SWF 1.3370/GBP 1.6230. JPY is expected to have a near term boundary of 119.30-117.50. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0980, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3370, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6230, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

March 13 2003
As expected, DOW slid below 7500. Without a clear support between 7500 and 7000, the latter is now the obvious target of further DOW retreat. Meanwhile, the butcher knife for cattle has been prepared for chickens on the war front. It is said to drop on necks as soon as the "moral" justification can be declared. On the dollar front, buyers are so much overbought against it for so long amid the trigger-tight tension of war, that they all seemed willing to take it on AUD and CAD. The belated pledge to join the war by these two governments may have also fanned up the fear of investors to keep holding their buy positions in AUD and CAD. GBP is rising among suggestion that US may be counting UK out of the line up. This is the season for rumors to fly sideways. This is not the time yet to be blown in and out of the market. Stay tuned.

 

March 12 2003
As expected, DOW came down within striking distance of 7500. Without a clear consensus on even what and when to vote, the remaining undecided UN members seem quite content to drag out the peace and war issue beyond March afterall. The prospect of no imminent war is offering no fresh incentive for buyers to go further beyond their technical boundary against USD. Hence, they began to cash out on AUD and CAD, while appearing less than fully certain to probe further into Europeans' strength. That said, it is still too early to call for a definitive corrective retreat of European majors, as rumors are now rampant about a possible Fed rate cut that would likely be aimed to help DOW more than USD. For now, it is very conceivable for AUD and CAD to retreat to 0.5970 and 1.4830. We will need to wait and see more before deciding it is time to shore up USD again. In the coming session, we may still see GBP working its way back up to 1.6200, EUR above 1.1100, and SWF below 1.3200. Stay tuned.

 

March 11 2003
DOW's downside move is on the verge of running through 7500. The rest of this downfall will have to play out up and down the benchmark of 7000 before the month is out. Meanwhile, there will likely be another USD retreat as well to make way for the majors to rise to our anticipated levels of EUR 1.1300s, SWF 1.2700s, GBP 1. 6500s, JPY 115.00s, CAD 1.4300s, and AUD 0.6300s. For the week, high drama should play out at the UN, where an overwhelming "no" vote would actually kill the chance of war, and vise versa. Again, caution is advised and trade entry is better held off until after the curtain is drawn. Stay tuned.

 

March 7 2003
As expected, DOW is poised to make a run below 7500; its posture is clearly leaning toward a return to 7000. USD on the other hand can easily yield another chunk of territory that may border EUR 1.1370, SWF 1.2700, GBP 1. 6700, JPY 115.00, CAD 1.4530, and AUD 0.6300. The coming session will see market's reaction to Bush's televised war declaration. It would be a rough ride, as the majors are expected to at least push for EUR 1.1170/GBP 1.6180/SWF 1.3230/JPY 116.00/CAD 1.4600/AUD 0.6200. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

 

March 6 2003
As EUR and SWF advanced onto new grounds against dollar, GBP finally swung back at USD as well. It is now pressing for GBP 1.6070 resistance, with 1.6200 maximum ceiling standing outside reach. Across the border, USD retreated down to new low levels, leading its pursuers to chase after further targets that can only been on Monthly Charts. They are EUR 1.1330, SWF 1.2700, GBP 1. 6700, JPY 115.00, CAD 1.4530, and AUD 0.6300. They will be the equivalence of a Dollar Index drop to 0.9690 level. The mighty DOW, too, backs down the verge of another sure slide below the 7500 support. It appears that the war effort is fueling most of the anxiety. We will hold off further market entries until we get a better reading of market mood. Stay tuned.

 

March 5 2003
The majors continued to edge ahead against USD, as buyers held onto their gains in the new territories beyond AUD 0.6100 and CAD 1.4850. Should they keep on going all the more, AUD 0.6320 and CAD 1.4690 should be the maximum extend of their current thrust. Meanwhile, the levels of EUR 1.0800 and SWF 1.3470 would be the next re-entry points for European buyers, if they indeed have in mind the targets beyond EUR 1.1000 and SWF 1.3000. JPY looks as non-trending as can be within the range of 117.00-119.00. Stay tuned.

Cut loss on AUD's 0.6100 sell position at 0.6150.
Cut loss on CAD's 1.4850 sell position at 1.4800.

 

March 4 2003
The much anticipated market breakout moves came about on Monday, but they went further against USD and our trading plans. Breaking below 1.3500, SWF buyers wasted little time to achieve a new low below 1.3400. With that, they have set in motion another downside drive that can target 1.3000-1.2730 levels (see Monthly Charts). Likewise, EUR buyers have also made enough headways to make a new high, possibly onto much higher grounds above 1.1000. Both AUD and CAD buyers overshot their 0.6100 and 1.4850 targets, but they appear hesitant to strive ahead for further gains. Their inaction in the coming session would invite sellers to come and turn the tide. Stay tuned.

Cut loss on EUR's 1.0720 sell at 1.0870.
Sold EUR at 1.0820, and cut loss at 1.0870.
Sold AUD at 0.6100, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Sold CAD at 1.4850, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 28 2003
Buyers for all majors appear to lack both interests and strength to push on further. Hence, their next move may very well be to unload some of their baggage. As such, USD is expected to make a rally in the coming session, perhaps mildly, but across the board nonetheless. Sellers are therefore advised to make their entries near AUD 0.6100, CAD 1.4850, EUR 1.0820, GBP 1.5870, SWF 1.3500, and JPY 117.00. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Hold EUR 1.0720 sell, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0820, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5870, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3500, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell JPY at 117.00, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell AUD at 0.6100, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell CAD at 1.4850, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 27 2003
Weighing heavily upon JPY 117.00, yen buyers are ready to go for the lower target of 116.30, just as AUD would 0.6100 and CAD 1.4850. EUR and SWF also appear favored in the coming session, possibly revisiting their previous targeted levels of EUR 1.0900 and SWF 1.3400. GBP is expected to remain weak under 1.5850; its support to the downside is the channel support line at 1.5670 channel. Stay tuned.

Hold EUR 1.0720 sell, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0900, RRR-100/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell AUD at 0.6100, RRR-100/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell CAD at 1.4850, RRR-100/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 26 2003
As expected, both AUD and CAD edged ever so closely to their channel lines at AUD 0.6100 and CAD 1.4850. Sellers are most definitely expected to show up at these two levels. Also as expected, the war jittery is sending GBP/USD/DOW down while stabilizing EUR/SWF. Hence, any sign of change in the war tone will likely reverse the pattern. A popular market saying is that when everyone thinks the market is to go one way, exactly the opposite scenario will be true. With all the pre-war jitters going on, one would have to wonder what the market reaction would be like after one of the war parties chickens out. Stay tuned.

Hold EUR 1.0720 sell, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0900, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell AUD at 0.6100, RRR-100/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell CAD at 1.4850, RRR-100/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 25 2003
As expected in our last Weekly Show, AUD buyers made their move toward 0.6100 level (a major channel resistance - see Monthly Charts). They will have nothing in the way to stop them from reaching it in the next session. However, in doing so, AUD buyers will likely subject themselves to attacks of technical selling. CAD buyers, too, quickly found themselves pressing for 1.4850 support after the collapse of 1.5000 level. Like AUD's 0.6100, CAD's 1.4850 sits also on a major channel support that will likely invite technical sell-off. Until the war finally takes place in Iraq, the European majors will continue to move sporadically in the pattern of stronger EUR/SWF at the expense of a weaker GBP/USD/DOW. Stay tuned.

Hold EUR 1.0720 sell, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0900, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell AUD at 0.6100, RRR-100/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell CAD at 1.4850, RRR-100/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 21 2003
As expected, both AUD and CAD went ahead to test their strength at 0.6000 and 1.5050, while JPY came down to 118.00 just short of reaching its 117.50 target. Buyers for these currencies are expected to hesitate a bit at these levels, but sellers will need to come in as well in order to turn the tides against buying. Meanwhile, European buyers are harassing USD at GBP's expense near our bail out levels. Once again we had the misfortune of watching SWF buyers matching just enough to clear us out of sell positions. From here on, winners will stand to gain at least +200pts from EUR 1.0820 and SWF 1.3550. Stay tuned.

Sold SWF at 1.3600, and cut loss at 1.3550.
Cut loss on SWF's 1.3700 sell position at 1.3550.
Sold EUR at 1.0820, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Hold EUR 1.0720's sell position, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 20 2003
The non-warring parties continue to see their currencies AUD, JPY, and CAD gaining up on USD amid the bluffing game now taking place between the protestors and Bush/Blair. The trio appears poised to make their next move to reach AUD 0.6000, JPY 117.50, and CAD 1.5050. Having probed its 8050 resistance, DOW is now cooling off below 8000, as dollar bulls pause for reassurance before making further gains against the European majors. The prospect of a USD move to the levels of EUR 1.0350, GBP 1.5700, and SWF 1.4000 still looks good, although it will require the dollar bulls to do some bluffing of their own. To spook USD sellers into retreat, buyers will need to stand firm if challenged to the levels of EUR 1.0820 and SWF 1.3600. Stay tuned.

Sold SWF at 1.3700, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Sold EUR at 1.0720, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0820, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3600, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 19 2003
As expected, DOW probed its 8050 resistance as dollar regained more strength against the European majors. Such will likely be the pattern for the rest of the week, particularly on the USD front. Soon we should the dollar trading back near the levels of EUR 1.0350, GBP 1.5700, and SWF 1.4000. JPY on the other hand will resume its role of balance act, gaining strength upon the weakening Europeans. It will revisit the mid 117.00 level to arouse sellers interest. Stay tuned.

Wait to buy GBP at 1.5700, RRR-150/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3700, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0720, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 18 2003
The market was thin on US President Day holiday. GBP took the opportunity to slide down further on its own; it will likely find some support comfort in the mid 1.5800s. Buyers, however, may return to shore it up in the low 1.5700s. Looking ahead, we should still see EUR and SWF following GBP's path to trade off their gains over the dollar. Their retreat targets will most likely be EUR 1.0350 and SWF 1.4000. DOW in its own right will probe 8050 resistance in the coming session. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.1020, RRR-50/+500pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0920, RRR-150/+400pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0820, RRR-200/+300pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 14 2003
Once below 8000 support, DOW is helplessly set on a course toward 7500 level, dragging down USD with it as well. Monthly Chart can now "see" 7000 once again as a viable testing target. The cat and mouse war dance, coupled with on-again off-again NATO and UN fights, is also leading to market's jittery reaction that bought and sold dollars on mood swings as well. In order to avoid further whipsaw actions, we will now stand back from choppy activities by widening our entry levels. The conventional wisdom would favor USD as a "safe haven" currency to shelf investment at the time of war. However, the unique NATO split seems to single out the warring parties such as GBP and USD for sell-off. If so, there would be little to stop EUR and SWF from eventually advancing above 1.1000 and below 1.3000. JPY is expected to remain mute between 120.50 and 121.30 within its wider range of 123.30-119.30. AUD is getting the much needed lift to reach for its upper channel resistance at 0.6100, while CAD buyers are retargeting 1.5000 at the courtesy of latest USD weakness. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Sold EUR at 1.0770, and cut loss at 1.0820.
Sold SWF at 1.3600, and cut loss at 1.3550.
Sold GBP at 1.6220, and took profit at 1.6200.
Wait to sell at EUR 1.1070, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell at SWF 1.3300, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell at GBP 1.6350, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy at EUR 1.0700, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy at SWF 1.3670, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy at GBP 1.6000, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 13 2003
As expected, JPY buyers took over sellers positions and pushed their way back from 121.70 trend line resistance to the mid-120.00s, where sellers once again took control. Needless to say, JPY 121.70 will be retested again in the coming session; the winner will take his gain to either 123.30 or 119.30. The European majors are expected to retreat further in the direction of SWF 1.4000, GBP 1.6000 and EUR 1.0500. SWF in particular will certainly begin to probe its 1.3800 resistance soon. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0770, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3600, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6220, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy EUR at 1.0500, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.3930, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.6000, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 12 2003
As expected, JPY sellers were able to capitalize on their upward momentum by reaching up to 121.70 along the trend line. From here sellers gave way to buyers who may now be able to bargain-hunt the yen back down to 120.30 support. The much expected European retreat have also come about, although at a much less dramatic fashion than anticipated. Slowly but steadily, all three of EUR/GBP/SWF backed away from pursuing the USD's weakest levels last week. It bodes well with our view of soon seeing SWF 1.3800 (even 1.4000), GBP 1.6000 and EUR 1.0500. Both AUD and CAD are also pending further sell-offs, which may shift their trading from current levels to AUD 0.5780 and CAD 1.4450. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0830, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3570, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6270, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 11 2003
As expected, JPY sellers made their move to test 121.30 resistance. Gathering upside momentum, they may reach up to 121.70 along the trend line in the coming week, before giving way to buyers' bargain-hunting activity. CAD too may be sold to the border of 1.5400 before leveling out for buyer re-entry. AUD buyers look ready to abandon their 0.6000 goal, making 0.5950 a very tempting price for sellers to step in and force a downturn. It seems increasingly probable for 0.5780 support to come up soon into the AUD picture. Dollar Index finally broke above 100.00 resistance, posturing a bullish outlook over the European majors. If this dollar-positive scenario is to play out, we should soon see SWF 1.3800, GBP 1.6000 and EUR 1.0500. Stay tuned.

Bought EUR at 1.0730, and took profit at 1.0745.
Bought SWF at 1.3570, and cut loss at 1.3620.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0820, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3550, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6370, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 7 2003
The world's view apparently changed very little after Secretary Powell's UN address. No one cares to fight a war, but everyone expects to see a war. The result is a spike in gasoline and a subdued DOW below 8000. Both USD and GBP weakened to reflect the war status of the two eager participants. Should this be the circumstance for the pending war, the long term outlook may be less than inspiring for quite a while longer than we have preferred to see thus far. However, for the coming session, USD's retreat may be technically limited to the following price levels (below) where we plan to day-trade it for a quick gain. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0900, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3430, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6500, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 6 2003
Both DOW and dollar reacted positively at the start of Secretary Powell's UN speech, recovering their lost grounds from the two sessions. However, much of the rally subsided at the end of the speech. Now that the big shoe has dropped and relatively well received in the US, it remains to be seen how the splash will ripple across other markets across the globe. DOW's upside limit continues to be 8300 as indicated in our Weekly Charts, while its 8000 level will continue to be tested as a support to hold back an all-out selloff to 7500s. USD on the other hand will need to break outside the range of EUR 1.0900-700 to cause a definitive rally or retreat. Meanwhile, the market is expected to remain choppy as friends and foes of USD will fight to gain the upper in the levels of EUR 1.0800s, GBP 1.6500s, and SWF 1.3500s. Stay tuned.

Cut loss on GBP's 1.6470 sell position at 1.6520.
Bought EUR at 1.0830, and cut loss at 1.0780.
Bought SWF at 1.3600, and cut loss at 1.3650.
Bought GBP at 1.6400, and took profit at 1.6425.
Wait to sell EUR 1.0900, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF 1.3500, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP 1.6500, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 5 2003
On the eve of Secretary Powell's UN show-n-tell, the marketplace became jittery again. Selling seemed to be the main order of the day during the last session against both DOW and USD. The duo once again find themselves with their backs against the wall, with DOW trading on and below the critical 8000 support and USD near EUR 1.1000. It seems that the probe of EUR 1.1020/GBP 1.6700/SWF 1.3320 levels may be inevitable. Stay tuned.

Sold EUR at 1.0830, and cut loss at 1.0880.
Sold SWF at 1.3580, and cut loss at 1.3530.
Sold GBP at 1.6470, RRR-50/+70pts.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.1020, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3320, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6700, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy EUR at 1.0830, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.3600, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.6400, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

February 4 2003
The tragedy over the weekend in space will likely lead to a distaste of war on earth this week, lessening to a certain effect the impact of Secretary Powell's speech on Iraq. The market seems to sense the mood swing by becoming less war-wary, returning to buy up DOW and dollar with decreased tension. As expected in our last Weekly Show, DOW should find its way back up to 8300, while USD may benefit from a corrective rally that may reach as high as JPY 121.30. The European majors should also become targets of sell-off near the levels of EUR 1.0830, GBP 1.6470, and SWF 1.3580. Stay tuned.

Sold EUR at 1.0800, and took profit at 1.0760.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0830, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3580, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6470, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 31 2003
As expected, DOW and USD were both shored up a bit in the last session as the market repositions itself in anticipation of Secretary Powell's big shoe to drop in UN next Wednesday. By then both DOW and dollar may have done their bullish correction to the levels of DOW 8230 and USD's EUR 1.0620, GBP 1.6200, SWF 1.3820, and JPY 121.30. To catch these moves, USD buyers may now upgrade their entries to GBP 1.6550, SWF 1.3530, and JPY 118.50. Meanwhile, AUD buyers are looking for ways to climb down the tall ladder for a correctional return to 0.5800. CAD buyers on the other hand seem to have run into stiff seller resistance at 1.5200, where volatile see-saw actions may spook buyers to retreat back to 1.5240. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Sold GBP at 1.6500, RRR-70/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0880, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3530, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.1100, RRR-/+200pts.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6700, RRR-/+200pts.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3000, RRR-/+200pts.

 

January 30 2003
As the President let the Secretary explain to UN next week the cause of liberating Iraq, the post-State of the Union market is once again left on its own to decide what to do about all that. As the world awaits Powell to make his case, more selling will likely result against DOW and dollar now that Bush's speech has conditioned his war declaration upon leading a coalition that has yet to come together. Meanwhile, however, the market may feel at ease to moderately correct the "oversold" status of both DOW and USD in the immediate coming session. If so, the EUR 1.0880, GBP 1.6500, and SWF 1.3480 levels may be taken as entries by dollar bulls. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0880, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6500, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3480, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.1100, RRR-/+200pts.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6700, RRR-/+200pts.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3000, RRR-/+200pts.

 

January 29 2003
Buyers of the majors took a little breath during the last session; however, in the absence of massive profit-taking selloff for USD, the major lost little or no ground. Hence, they are still in command of the market, pending on further advance against the dollar. Much of the coming session activities will depend on how Bush's war declaration sounds off in today's State of the Union speech. Further selling is likely against DOW and dollar if the speech offers no clear-cut direction and determination. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.1100, RRR-/+200pts.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6700, RRR-/+200pts.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3000, RRR-/+200pts.
Wait to buy EUR at 1.0620, RRR-50/+200pts.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.6220, RRR-50/+200pts.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.3820, RRR-50/+200pts.

 

January 28 2003
The war worries continue to weigh heavily on the minds of investors who, as expected, backed down to DOW 8000 while shunning the mighty dollar all the more. The market can now embrace itself for further USD retreat to the levels of EUR 1.1100, GBP 1.6700, and SWF 1.3000. Buyers for the European majors may seize levels of EUR 1.0700, GBP 1.6200, and SWF 1.3700 for re-entries. A lot will depend on the triangle war of words amongst Iraq, the US, and the UN in the coming days. AUD bulls still have an eye on the upper 0.6000's channel line, while CAD buyers may have in mind the 1.5000 support. JPY alone remains mute and unaffected to the winds of war. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.1100, RRR-/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6700, RRR-/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3000, RRR-/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy EUR at 1.0700, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.6200, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.3700, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 24 2003
As expected, DOW continues to slide toward 8000 level, as USD is being challenged in the upper EUR 1.0700s for the first time. The EUR 1.0770-1.0800 zone is the last stand for dollar bulls to hold out against sellers, before having to give way to 1.0900 and 1.1080. Otherwise, the scenario of massive dollar rally will be true, expecting to see a fast run back to EUR 1.0350. briefly. GBP's upside ceiling, on the other hand, is still its channel resistance at 1.5300, and so should be AUD's 0.6060. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Sold EUR at 1.0770, and took profit at 1.0750.
Wait to sell EUR at 1..8000, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6300, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 23 2003
As expected, once DOW's 8500 support failed to hold against war-driven selling, it wasted no time to slide straight toward 8000 level. Reaching it might as well be a foregone conclusion. It will be done to at least price in the attack that everyone seems now to agree is to take place. Meanwhile, on the dollar front, the bluffing game is still slowly dragging out between the equally spooked bulls and bears, who are currently jockeying for position in the EUR 1.0700s. As the time drags on, the much "oversold" USD is to rise with increasing probability. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0770, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6300, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 22 2003
As indicated in our last Weekly Show, DOW continues to drift further away from 8770 resistance. Next it will be up to 8500 support to prevent an all-out retreat down to 8000 level. The sell-off in both DOW and dollar appears to suggest that the market is attempting to price in the upcoming war in Iraq. Hence, when the war does break out, one would expect to see the market swinging back the other way. For now, it is very likely that DOW is to reach 8000 for comfort, while USD's retreat may still be contested in the EUR 1.0700s and GBP 1.5300s. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0770, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6300, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 21 2003
It is a do-or-die waiting game as the week starts with a slow thin market on US holiday. All that can be said about the likely dollar rally on divergence signals have been said about it. It is just waiting to be proven true or false all within this week. The market seems to be wait for a signal to set off its motion in one way or the other. In case of a USD rally, we should see a fast movement to EUR 1.0350/GBP 1.5770/SWF 1.4160. In case of a further sell-off, dollar would ultimately retreat to EUR 1.1080/GBP 1.6500/SWF 1.3000. Meanwhile, AUD appears certain to move up higher until reaching its channel resistance at 0.6070. CAD is testing its 5-year trend line at 1.5300; if it breaks down, then buyers would push for 1.5000 support. Otherwise, a bounce from the trend line (1.5300) can bring up sellers back above 1.5500. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0770, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6300, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 17 2003
DOW's weeklong attempt to establish a foothold above 8770 resistance finally appears to have run out of steam by rounding its top in the low 8800s. Settling once again below 8770, DOW will back away from it in search of a downside support to recharge itself. The obvious support for this pending retreat is DOW 8550. On the dollar front, the market finally took the excuse of an all-time high oil price to make a move against USD, pushing it across the board to all of our anticipated targets (EUR 1.0630, GBP 1.6130, and SWF 1.3750). The next obvious question will be whether USD will put up a fight or take a flight from these levels. It is anyone's bet which way market's next move will go, although our analysis continues to favor a dollar corrective rally against the majors. With revised sell entries below, we will continue to risk -50pts to catch the corrective USD rallies. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Sold EUR at 1.0630, and took profit at 1.0615.
Sold GBP at 1.6130, and took profit at 1.6110.
Sold SWF at 1.3750, RRR-50/+50pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0730, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6270, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 16 2003
Another day passed without the big shoe dropped into the marketplace. The market overall remained quiet; however, it may very well be the quiet before the storm. Everything that was said for the last session remains true for the coming session. Hence, we hold on to the same trade plans as the following, as we are coming closer and closer to the pending USD rally that is timed by Fibonacci cycles to take place in a couple of more days. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell EUR at 1.0630, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6130, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3750, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 15 2003
Buyers and sellers are still jockeying to gain the upper hand at AUD 0.5830 and CAD 1.4380, where technical indicators are leaning more and more to favor sellers. As mentioned in our last Daily Show, the duo are expected to be soon sold back to AUD 0.5770 and CAD 1.5500. Meanwhile, the truth-or-dare game continues to test the brinkmanship between Europeans and USD buyers near their respective channel lines. As a long-held view, there are unmistakenable bearish divergence patterns against rising EUR and GBP; they are simply and classically warning us of the pending downside corrections that are to take place at any time. It may take a rumor of Saddam exiling to Osama's hideout to finally get going the dollar rally. Stay tuned.

Sold JPY at 118.00, and cut loss at 117.50.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0630, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6130, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3750, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 14 2003
Buyers for both AUD and CAD are meeting their own channel resistance at AUD 0.5830 and CAD 1.4380. Soon they are expected to depart the market, allowing sellers to turn the trading away from the channel lines. It is highly probable to see AUD dip down to 0.5770 soon, and CAD back up to 1.5500 shortly. Meanwhile, divergence patterns continue to weigh heavily against further buying in European majors, whose sudden sell-off correction can take place at any time now. However, choppy market activities may still be ahead. In order to avoid getting whipped out, we will stay about 100pts from the market close and try to catch the sell-off waves with the much anticipated USD rally. Stay tuned.

Took profit on SWF's 1.3800 sell position at 1.3850.
Wait to sell EUR at 1.0620, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6130, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.3750, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.
Wait to sell JPY at 118.00, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close.

 

January 10 2003
AUD is finally probing 0.5800 level, making 0.5830 a resistance to invite sellers whose risk is above 0.5880. CAD on the other hand is also advancing below 1.5600 and returning once again to the border of 1.5500. Its maximum buying potential is its channel support line at 1.4400, where sellers are surely to appear. Meanwhile, buyers for European and Japanese majors are once again shrinking away from charging full throttle against USD, posturing yet another gesture to submit to our near-term pro-dollar indicators. After clearing us out of positions in the previous session, all four of them are settling near our last entries after mildly making additional gains. Combined with fully developed divergence patterns on all three time-frame charts (hourly, daily, and weekly), USD would have to be viewed to be on the verge of a massive recovery rally. The tough part is, as it has been for us, how to get in the market without getting bumped out again. Stay tune