Cut loss on EUR's 0.8800 buy position at 0.8750.
Holding JPY's buy position at 134.00, RRR-150/+200pts.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4130, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8730, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6970, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 135.80, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.3950, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8500, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7300, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.

 

January 18, 2002
This has been a confusing week that saw many see-saw actions. To orient our thoughts and plans for the coming week, we would like our viewers to first take a look at the Dollar Index chart in our Monthly Charts page. There, one would once again find the formidable Fibonacci market cycle line coming in to mark next week a major turning point of market action. If the previous dollar trend has been one of upside, this turning point would most likely bend it back to the downside. Hence, we are alerting that next week may be the start of a prolonged dollar selling. With that in mind, we then turn to the present weekly outlook of all the majors we keep tracking of. CAD sellers suddenly shot up above 1.6050 peak to press upon its channel resistance near 1.6200. Our trendline analysis points 1.6200 to be a major resistance that should prove tough to break in one shot. Furthermore, it will likely spook the sellers who ventured there in a hurry. With buyers waiting in the wings, sellers should feel increasingly insecure to hang around 1.6200 for too long before dipping downward to grab their profit. A return to 1.6000 support is highly expected, while 1.5850 support may also become a target of correction. AUD too has dipped down to its own channel support near 0.5130. It can slide further to 0.5050 support, but a rebound back to 0.5210 resistance is more probable. JPY once again, against all odds, is positioning itself for a sell spree back to 135.00. However, it is doing so with all the signs of a sudden down turn that is poised to take place at any time. To avoid missing the sudden buying wave, one would need to increase his/her risk tolerance from -50pts to perhaps -150pts. A buying wave is very much in the picture, it is just the matter of not knowing from which level within the zone of 133.00-135.00. As a compromise, we will wait right in the middle of the zone with buying orders. Once the downside move starts, it will go for either 130.00 or 127.00. The European majors went see-saw actions back and forth throughout the week, leaving little definitive hints as to their own next move. If we must infer from Dollar Index' monthly chart omen, however, the European majors should also join to benefit from the pending dollar retreat. Accordingly, we will step a short distance away from the market action and wait to buy them at the following price levels. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Sold EUR at 0.8850, and took profit at 0.8840 at close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8800, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6750, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4330, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 134.00, RRR-150/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.6200, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.

 

January 11, 2002
This has been a slow week, one that saw both DOW and USD posturing for their next definitive moves. The week ended, however, with little or no obvious clues as to which way the US markets will move in the coming week. If any indication can be inferred from the fact that both DOW and dollar attempted to firm up their gains only to fall back for supports by the week's end, then we may finally see the start of a corrective slide of DOW from 10100 to 9700 and Dollar Index from 117.00s to below 116.10 again. The latter move may translate into gains of European majors from their current levels to buyers' targets of EUR 0.9100/SWF 1.6270/GBP 1.4680. However, if the dollar should gain the upper hand next week, it may still stand on a good chance to roll over the majors to their previous weak levels of EUR 0.8730/SWF 1.6950/GBP 1.4200. Meanwhile, JPY's upside journey to reach up for the illusive 135.00 channel line is running into an ominously bearish triple-top pattern. Should it slide downward, it will have nowhere to fall but 127.00. Hence, the 200pt zone between 133.00-135.00 is becoming an increasingly tempting ground for buyers to show up for the sudden death of sellers' 135.00 trek. Elsewhere, AUD is falling back upon its 0.5210 level for support after breaking it decidedly early in the week. It may develop a wide channel (see Weekly Charts) in which to gradually work its way up for the zone of 0.6350-0.6400. CAD on the other hand is sharing similar patterns with that of JPY, in which its sellers seem to lack the strength necessary to decidedly break onto higher grounds (e.g.. 1.6200, like JPY's 135.00 target). While CAD buyers are not making their presence shown near the level of 1.6000, sellers appear to shun away from 1.6000 on their own lack of confidence to trade above it. In time, this hesitance may cost them a retreat back down to 1.5800 support in a hurry. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to buy EUR at 0.8850, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4430, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6650, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 133.00, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.

 

January 4, 2002
Against all technical indication (including the latest US monthly jobless rate at 5.8%) , particularly that of increasingly reduced trading volume, DOW broke above its formidable 10100 resistance. With its bullish breakout momentum, DOW is likely to carry itself up to the mid 10500 level, where we would stand on our good name to scream for its sell-off. Nonetheless, DOW's stubborn bullishness does spill over to lend its support to dollar's recovery from its recent losses against he European majors. However, Dollar Index fails to significantly bounce up and away from its crucial 116.10 support, leaving an easy target to possible renewed selling assault next week. In any case, Dollar Index remains little change at the weekly close from its start. The only currency that does reveal a clear pattern of hints is JPY, who is showing an unmistaken sign of weekly "key-reversal", which signals a pending downside correction against its current move toward 135.00. Hence, yen's selling toward 135.00 may be delayed to make way for a near term downside correction which may dip as low as 127.00. Meanwhile, JPY 132.00 may offer good buying entry for the slide down at the courtesy of JPY's "key reversal" (see it on the Monthly Chart). AUD finally swung back to the border of 0.5210 resistance, as expected. By settling the week just below this level, AUD is now carrying the look of breaking above it once and for all, retargeting 0.5300. CAD on the other hand is being sold back just beneath 1.6000 resistance. More likely than not, it is preparing itself for a pending retreat into the high 1.6100s before buying will inevitably take place to drive out sellers. On the European front, all is quiet for now. But the general tone for the immediate near term seems to favor a slight further retreat from the recovering USD. SWF for example is poised to back up to 1.6650 level (1.6730 being the max ceiling for next week), as EUR may dip back down to the old 0.8840 support (with 0.8730 being the max bottom). GBP seems to stand on a firmer ground than both SWF and EUR, as it ended up the week bouncing off its weekly low just shy of 1.4500 resistance. With 1.4400 standing as its support for the coming week, GBP may eventually find itself trading above 1.4500 once again. If so, the target of GBP 1.4680 will finally come under serious probing by the buyers. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to buy SWF at 1.6650, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8840, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4420, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 132.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.