Sold (short) JPY 131.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit at close.

 

December 21, 2001
Dollar Index spent much of the week under sellers' challenge only to roar over them in the end. It has now successfully reclaimed its 116.10 resistance to now target the 117.80 resistance which appears certain to be hit next week. The European majors which early in the week had ganged up on USD suddenly reversed their to join JPY in a massive retreat that calls in question their early posture to roll over the dollar onto new highs. What remains very clear is JPY's steady retreat toward 130.00 level, which we anticipate to stand as a firm resistance against sellers at least for the near term of next week. Given 131.00 may be spiked by selling momentum, we will sit in the high 130.00s with a bargain-hunting buy order at a risk of -50pt. Meanwhile, the European majors may still be good buy items, but at the caution levels of EUR 0.8730/SWF 1.6680/GBP 1.4200. Their near term buying levels are the current battle grounds of EUR 0.8840/SWF 1.6550/GBP 1.4340. However, we will keep a distance away from jumping on the Europeans in lieu of the more obvious attraction, namely the coming week's yen approaching 130.00 benchmark. This would be an event that is usually accompanied with the official posturing of intervention threat as well as market's widening division of bulls and bears. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Cut loss EUR's 0.8980 buy (long) position at 0.8930.
Bought EUR 0.8930, and cut loss at 0.8880.
Bought SWF 1.6400, and cut loss at 1.6450.
Bought GBP 1.4400, and cut loss at 1.4350.
Wait to buy JPY 130.80, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit at close.

 

December 14, 2001
As expected, GBP took the lead throughout the week to dare down the dollar strength. The rest of the European majors, EUR and SWF, simply followed. Also according to our expectation, JPY resumed its role of balance-factor by retreating against the dollar that is retreating from the Europeans. Unexpected, however, is the fact that both GBP and JPY overshot our anticipated barriers of 1.4500 and 127.00. In fact, both settled the week well beyond these two significant levels, a development that is actually starting a new trend for the New Year to come. Piercing through its upper channel resistance line at 1.4500, GBP is well on the way to probe its next target of 1.4680, and very possibly 1.4870 as well (see Monthly Chart). If so, EUR and SWF would have reached their own targets of advance at 0.9330 (0.9600) and 1.6120 (1.5500). The buying levels for the European trio will be GBP 1.4470, EUR 0.8970, and SWF 1.6400. Meanwhile, JPY's settlement above 127.00 resistance has technically set off the beginning of another major trend, one that will at the very least reach 130.00 benchmark and most likely be heading much higher. JPY's near term selling support is 126.00. CAD buyers on the other hand have successfully broken down sellers' last stand at 1.5700; they are in no doubt heading down to reach 1.5500 before resting their current effort. AUD also looks very positive in its next attempt to roll above the month long resistance of 0.5210; their obvious motivation continues to be the lure of 0.5300 target. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Sold GBP 1.4480, and cut loss at 1.4530.
Bought JPY 127.00, and cut loss at 127.50.
Sold EUR 0.9030, RRR-50/+50pts, or settle profit at close.
Wait to sell JPY 126.00, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit at close.
Wait to buy EUR 0.8970, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit at close.
Wait to buy SWF 1.6400, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit at close.
Wait to buy GBP 1.4470, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit at close.

 

December 7, 2001
As expected, DOW bulls made their dash to poke the formidable 10100 Fibonacci resistance and respectfully settled the week a distance away from it. This level is the last Fibonacci correction barrier, beyond which DOW could shift into bullish mode once again. Precisely because of it, as well as an aiding channel line resistance (see Weekly Charts), DOW's 10100 level should stand firm enough to force a downside correction capable of reaching down to the mid 9700s. The latest rise in US monthly jobless rate (from 5.4% to 5.7%) bode well with the latest government's confirmation of an ongoing recession in US. The impressive holiday retail sales data also reflect consumers' increased desire to turn the otherwise travel money into stay-at-home expense. This could be a facade of more mixed signal to come yet. In any case, we should see a dampened DOW enthusiasm in the week ahead. USD on the other hand saw itself becoming the subject of buying, selling, and buying again throughout the week. Needless to say, it is now presenting to us quite a few confusing pictures. First of all, the obvious pictures are those of JPY and GBP. The former is clearly heading up to the border of 126.00s as yen sellers run a firm show of force to spook buyers. The latter, yet, is being bought successfully above 1.5200 support, where buyers can now stage a very technically possible run to the border of 1.4500 (or at least reaching into the 1.4400s in the coming week). EUR and SWF, however, look less than certain of either further buying or selling. Yet, the conventional wisdom would have it that if one member of their European family, the GBP, is to advance onto higher grounds, then both EUR and SWF might behave similarly as well. For now, EUR's buying immediate buying support is 0.8840, risking below 0.8800. SWF's buying entry may be 1.6680, risking above 1.6770. We will, however, bypass these two buy (long) entries to instead stay closer with GBP's move for the start of coming week. Meanwhile, we will try to flow in with JPY's upward selling wave by grabbing any dips into the border of 125.00 as sell (short) entry. AUD has once again shifted into sideway straddling mode, yield no readable hint about its next trending move. Should such a slow pattern continue two or three session into next week, though, it may signal a downside correction further away from 0.5210 resistance but closer to 0.5000 benchmark level again. CAD is sitting right on top of its supporting channel line at 1.5700, below which buyers would have their way down to 1.5560. If not, CAD's 1.5850 resistance should attract more interests for revisit. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to buy GBP 1.4280, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit at close.
Wait to buy JPY 126.70, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit at close.
Wait to sell JPY 125.00, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit at close.
 

November 30, 2001
The Dollar Index broke to trade below its 116.10 support signals a dollar downside correction that is yet to continue, perhaps to the support of 114.60. If so, it would allow majors to advance further in the wake of dollar retreat. CAD's double-top pattern did signal a downside move as it lured buyers in to push for 1.5600 support. AUD's buyers also held on to their ground near and above 0.5200, setting up a stage for higher climb to reach 0.5300 target soon. JPY on the other hand saw a see-saw battle between buyers and sellers in the zone of 124.00-123.00, stretching the boundaries to 124.40-122.70 for the coming week. The latter may be a good selling entry for those who are still aiming at the target of 126.00 which still remains as a technical valid target. However, should JPY be trading below 122.70 support for more than a day, the possibility of 121.00 coming up will become very real. Against the European majors, however, USD has quickly retreated to a critical channel support (see Weekly Charts on Dollar Index, CAD, and SWF). The first sign of channel support breach is already seen on the SWF chart, which could be a prelude to more bearishness to come for the dollar. Although our latest buying efforts against dollar slide were rendered "innocent" cut-losses for our SWF and JPY entries, we will have to re-aim their entries for better luck next week. The advance targets for the European trio are EUR 0.9120/SWF 1.6240/GBP 1.4400. The buying entries for catching these moves may be EUR 0.8900/ SWF 1.6480/ GBP 1.4400. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Holding AUD's 0.5200 buy position, RRR-50/+50pts.
Cut loss on SWF's 1.6530 buy (long) at 1.6580.
Cut loss on JPY's 123.70 buy (long) at 124.20.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8900, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6480, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4200, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9120, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6240, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4400, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.

 

November 23, 2001
The week is cut short due to US' Thanksgiving holiday. Thanks for that the world is still in one piece of many pieces. Thanks for that our trading for the year, no matter how sluggish it has been, is still healthy and standing. Thanks for that the market has more and less behaved the way we have called it for the most part. Thanks for that many of our viewers have been able to adapt our forecast to their own successful trading. From here on, we are entering into the thin (but nonetheless tricky) market period during the yearend holiday season. While this period is typically boring and flat (because traders are packing their bags for home), it can often produce stone-in-the-quiet-lake effect, making and killing millionaires from left to right of us. To gain an overview of next week's market prospect, viewers are advised to please glance through our Weekly and Monthly Charts pages for visual illustrations. As expected, Dollar Index reached its 117.80 resistance this week. Although upside momentum may carry it the maximum height of 118.70, Dollar Index is in technical need of some unloading (profit-taking) by dipping back to 116.10 support. Likewise, EUR is testing its 0.8730 support, the lower boundary of its 0.8960-0.8730 range. This support is a worth-buying support, in that if it is broken down, a cut loss would not become needless 'innocent' false alarm. GBP's 1.4000 support on the other hand is also a worth-trying buy level, with the risk below 1.3950 and 1.4200 being the first major upside resistance. SWF, though, remains a different European major to read, in that it is being pulled by the lures of both 1.6500 and 1.6950. We anticipated that 1.6950 will eventually be tested, but probably after 1.6500 is first probed once again. The best readable pending movement is that of JPY who is well on the way to reach 125.00, and very likely 126.00 as well. CAD will make a double-top by attempting to reach 1.6100, and then taking a prolong downside corrective move much the same way as its 1.5850 peak (see Weekly Charts). AUD is trying to reestablish its foothold above 0.5210 resistance for its eventual push toward 0.5300. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to buy EUR at 0.8670, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6950 RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4000, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 126.00, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.6100, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8840, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6600 RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4200, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 123.70, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.