Sold (short) EUR at 0.8470, and took profit at 0.8370.
Sold (short) SWF at 1.7800, and took profit at 1.7950.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8300, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.8080, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4420, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 108.20, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4660, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.

 

October 13, 2000
With all the misgivings that are going on around the world this week, people have all but completely forgotten about last month's intervention that pulled USD away from its historic highs against European majors. Dollar is being bought en masse as a "safe haven" currency anyway. Finally breaking out above SWF 1.7540 resistance, dollar is clearly gaining much needed ground to make another advance toward pre-intervention levels in the coming week(s), this time at the benchmark of 1.8000s without a doubt. Likewise, EUR is facing the reality of sinking to a new low in the 0.8300s (see Weekly Charts). GBP on the other hand will have to hold up much weight upon its 1.4400 support, whose breakdown will cause a sudden drop to 1.4200s. DOW's upside ceiling is 10400, but its downside has room to stretch down to 9400s (see Monthly Charts). Having fulfilled its upside target of 1.5150, CAD is fast pulling back for a correction down to 1.5000 support, where renewed upside selling interests will push CAD back up again. However, CAD's upside ceiling is not expected to exceed 1.5300. AUD is repeatedly testing and breaking its 0.5300 support, leaving the impression that it is to head down much lower. However, AUD's 0.5300 level happens to sit on the support by both a lower channel line and a rising bullish divergence (or pattern of lower the price and higher the RSI/momentum reading). Such a pattern is a classic indication of a pending upside rally. In all likeliness, AUD will hold above 0.5250 to support a subsequent buying rally above 0.5400 next week. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to buy EUR at 0.8300, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8650, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.8000, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7570, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5250, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell AUD at 0.5520, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.5300, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell CAD at 1.5000, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 106.70, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4660, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
 

October 6, 2000
The US monthly jobless data released this morning, at 3.9%, is said to hit a 30-year low. The bulls in the DOW market who spent a week trying to break above 10880 resistance on the news of no rate hike are being forced now to take a second thought. Should the coming CPI/PPI numbers go up, compounded with the lingering gas prices, the market is sure to price in the effect of a possible rate hike at the next Fed meeting. Hence, we would see some definitive trading development outside DOW's current sideway range. It will also much affect the dollar strength one way or the other. As it stands now, the Dollar Index is slowly but surely recovering most of its lost value suffered during last month's intervention. As mentioned shortly after the central banks concertedly sold dollars, the intervention effect usually gets completely erased in the weeks following it. Merely two weeks passed, it looks to be doing just that, courtesy of a seemingly still robust US economy. As such, dollar is highly expected to reclaim its pre-intervention highs against majors in the weeks ahead. The critical dollar breakout levels to watch next week are SWF 1.7540, EUR 0.8660, and GBP 1.4400, where sellers are putting up a desperate fight against USD right now. However, if dollar closes beyond these levels even for a day next week, the market would most likely see a fast dollar advance right to SWF 1.7750, EUR 0.8550, and GBP 1.4200. JPY's general motion is set for reaching the upside target of 110.10; its current pullback will have a cushion support of 108.00-107.20, where sellers are likely to step in to lift it back up toward 110.00s. The most assured trading scenario is in AUD who has finally touched down its 0.5300 support, which is being held up by both a channel support line and a rising bullish divergence. AUD's much expected upside swing can go as high as 0.5520s if given a couple of more weeks. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Bought (long) AUD at 0.5300, and took profit at 0.5330.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5300, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
 

September 29, 2000
GBP which is proudly defended from becoming an euro received additional gains when the Danes voted not to join EUR, either, last this week. This latest GBP move sent itself right up to 1.4800 which is bordering a descending resistance of a channel line (see Weekly Chart). Although it has displayed quite resilience in its lone drive to recover from below 1.4000, GBP's gain is standing on one shaking leg that has been stretched sufficiently long enough to render itself vulnerable to selling attacks next week. GBP's 1.4800 is the resistance spot that hits the channel resistance, above which 1.4880-1.4930 will serve as a thin layer of secondary resistance that attracts selling interests. GBP's 1.4660 now stands as an initial support against the pending selling wave. Likewise, EUR's ceiling for the coming week will be 0.9070 (after 0.8930) and SWF's support will be 1.7000 (after 1.7180). The more formidable SWF support will be 1.6870, which like EUR's 0.9220 is not expected to be threaten next week. JPY's downside move is well supported and stalled by a trend line, and it is poised to make another run upward at the elusive 110.00 level again soon. For now, 107.20 will serve as a support for the up go. CAD finally rolled over 1.4900 resistance to poke above 1.5000 upside target, but its sell-off is not expected to go above 1.5150 where buyers will surely come in to bargain hunt. AUD's return back to the downside has completely erased all of its intervention gains; however, its major technical support is coming up at 0.6300 where buyers should increase numbers to replace sellers. Given that AUD broke down on the opening day of Olympic, the convention wisdom would have the Aussies rise again when the sport meet closes. Enjoy the final weekend of Olympic 2000 and stay tuned.

Sold (short) GBP at 1.4800 and took profit at 1.4750.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4800, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8930, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7200, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.5150, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.6300, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.

 

September 22, 2000
The big shoe finally dropped, as Fed and BOJ lent their helping hands to European central bankers today to curve back the dollar strength against the badly sold EUR, SWF and GBP. For the longest time, we called for a dollar downside correction, planned on it, and traded on it. However, we lost the sight of it when it chose its own terms and time to take place such as today, two weeks after the Fibonacci cycle line passed by. One cannot help but to wonder if the central bankers would pass around a copy of our Daily Show as well. Now that intervention has occurred, the coming scenario will be one of who-scares-who drama as the market and central banks duel it out in the open. As often seen in the past, no single intervention would do the trick of reversing a market trend. Furthermore, nearly the entire intervention effect (or distance) will be chipped away as the market regroups itself to come back and dares further intervention. This pattern has already been seen in AUD who rallied up to a high of 0.5600 and sank right back into 0.5400s where the intervention started. AUD is to remain weak but not much below 0.5350, as CAD is poised to make a breakout run back to its benchmark 1.5000 next week. GBP remarkably led European majors' rally against USD as well as our expectation; it will also lead the coming sell-off when it peaks under its channel resistance line near 1.4900. SWF's buying will find 1.6870 as a solid bottom support, while 1.7540 serves as a near term selling resistance. It is highly doubtful that having come so close to SWF 1.8000, the market would leave it alone untouched before turning the other way. Given the ongoing intervention scare, however, we will keep this thought under the keyboard until SWF settles once again above 1.7500. EUR's buying strength will wear thin under its channel resistance near 0.9200, while its downside move should be contain above 0.8500. The name of the game for the coming week will be of hit-and-run nature. It is likely to flow with the intervention scare at the start of next week, and then gradually turn into a dare for scare kind of game. We will constantly look for key support/resistance levels, near which to conduct a few day trades to even the score. Enjoy your weekend, and stay tuned.

Sold (short) GBP at 1.4450, and cut loss at 1.4600.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7500, RRR-150/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8670, RRR-150/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4400, RRR-150/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6980, RRR-150/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9170, RRR-150/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4880, RRR-150/+150pts, or settle profit by close.

 

September 15, 2000
As Olympic 2000 Opening Ceremony goes on the way in Sydney, the forex market pays its own brand of respect by sinking AUD to its all time low below 0.5500. Relying on the method of "shifted channel," we are able to come up with 0.5350 as AUD's next downside target in the uncharted territory. Dollar Index is receiving much boost from this latest AUD plight. With minor twists and turns, this week market went rather remarkably close to what we forecasted, even yielding to us a reward of big catch on SWF. Being intervention sensitive this week, the market did see some panic buying of European majors. Also evident was dollar bulls' reluctance to push too far away from their gains at such critical levels as EUR 0.9500, GBP 1.4000, and SWF 1.8000. If we go to the moon and look back again, the overall market outlook is still this:

1) A menacing overbought dollar has come near but short of its goals of 0.8500, SWF 1.8000, and GBP 1.3900; 2) A market that is both fearful and dismissive of central bank intervention to shore up beleaguered euro. 3) A pending dollar correction that has yet to be fully due beyond the last week's Fibonacci turning point.

In other words, the market at this juncture is fully capable of going for either massive dollar sell-off or major dollar advance still. According to our observation, successful interventions during the last decade have always carried two ingredients: the involvement of both Fed and BOJ, and the timing of technical imminence. We cannot read central bankers' minds, but we can read their blood sugar level on charts. Right now, SWF charts give us the best reading on how dollar may behave in the coming week. With or without interventions, dollar is likely to push and press for it (intervention) by going for the benchmark SWF 1.8000 high (no higher than 1.8100 as it is capped under by trend line resistance, see Weekly Charts). This move will no doubt leave behind a track pattern of "double-top" (a formation known to precede a major downside action). Cries of interventions then would pack much more nose-bleeding effect than right now. Hence, we will once again let the market move its move in dollar's favor, and then jump in to trade on a dollar correction from key technical levels listed below. Enjoy Olympic 2000, and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.7920, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8100, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy (long) EUR at 0.8480, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) GBP at 1.3900, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
 

September 8, 2000
With crude oil price poised to reach $40 per barrel, gasoline is finally coming close to the worth of bottled drinking water. This process, however, is taking place at a juncture where USD is marching into historic highs against European majors, and US economy is begging for a justification of corrective recession. These factors plus more are fueling the fundamentals for concerted interventions, rumors, anxiety, and market volatility. Technically speaking, USD has also crossed the much talked about Fibonacci cycle line into new highs. We have waited weeks for this technical scenario to come true, and indeed half of it has come true. The second half will be a dollar retreat for its highs, and it has yet to be waited and seen. Beside our ATS-3 trend following system, all other indications are firmly supporting a dollar correction scenario that is soon to occur. True to our own words, we have cast our net the second time to catch it. Confidently we are looking forward to seeing a dollar retreat from its current level (SWF 1.7900-1.8000) back down to SWF 1.7500 in a hurry. All it takes is for someone to go to the trading pit next and scream "Wallet!" EUR is also looking good for a bottom-out scenario when it comes near its next channel support at 0.8500 (see Weekly Chart). Its initial upside resistance against a bouncing rally will be 0.8850. GBP is in a sad shape, because (as mentioned before) after the breakdown of 1.4660 support there is no other significant support to hold against selling until it hits 1993's devaluation level (1.4060). Worse yet, if GBP is to free fall along its latest bearish channel, it would touch down the lower channel line at a below-1.4000 price (see Weekly Chart). JPY briefly broke its own trend line support before bouncing up for a correction. This development bodes well with a scenario that will first see JPY reaching up 107.20 resistance and then turn to go for 104.00 downside support. CAD will remain range bound, repeating its last week boundaries. AUD should find its near term bottom in the low 0.5500s while 0.5700 will keep its upside ceiling well protected. DOW will have a down week. Blessed or cursed, we will stick to our SWF plans to catch a big one. Trading on the side, we will conduct near term day trades with EUR when it comes near 0.8500. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned Daily Shows.

Bought (long) SWF at 1.7800, RRR-300/+300pts.
Bought (long) SWF at 1.7900, RRR-300/+400pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8500, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.

 

September 2, 2000
Our counter-trend attempt to sell JPY short did not pay off, as yen turned around to bite us right on the nose. Near 105.50, JPY is currently sitting right on top of a supporting trend line, which prevents it from going lower toward 104.00. Should JPY hold above 105.50 early next week, 107.20 border will likely be revisited again by sellers. JPY 108.00 will now serve as an entry that attracts buyers to trend yen's trading downward. Meanwhile, Dollar Index has finally come within days of reaching the much talked about Fibonacci cycle line (now four days away, due to come on September 7 if taken out Monday as a non-trading US Labor Day), as all three European majors (EUR, SWF, GBP) have approached and shrunk back from their critically weak levels against the dollar. The anxiety is building and so is the choppy volatility seen in the marketplace recently. Something big is going to happen, and our anticipation is that USD will reach a major turning point, from which at least a sizeable dollar correction will develop. What remains less than clear, however, is whether USD will poke a few new highs against the majors before taking its nose dive from a price level of its own "choosing". Such prices as SWF 1.7700, EUR 0.8520, and GBP 1.4200 are all likely dollar surprises that can wipe out the flexible accounts of inflexible minds. For the coming week, we will first take a conservative posture trading against the dollar rise by standing clear out of its bullish path. As soon as dollar shows sign of weakening (especially on or after the Fibonacci Thursday), we will turn aggressive to trade against it by buying up majors. JPY remains still large non-responsive to the upcoming dollar event, which has managed to frustrated many of our efforts to make a profit from it. Nonetheless, we will still trying to grab a sell (short) against it in the mid 105.00s next week, just to see if it gives. CAD unexpectedly failed to make it over the 1.4900 resistance, and as a result rolled back through 1.4800 support to threaten 1.4620 next week. AUD will also be mildly range-bound traded between 0.5800 and 0.5650. We are planning to launch our Membership site one month from today on October 1st. We will make a formal announcement in our home page as well as in emails to viewers who have kept in touch with us over the last three years. Enjoy your long weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Sold (short) JPY at 106.30, and cut loss at 105.80.
Wait to sell JPY at 105.60, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 108.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7700, RRR-200/+200pts.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8520, RRR-200/+200pts.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4200, RRR-200/+200pts.
 

August 25, 2000
With another week out of way, Dollar Index is now one and a half weeks away from the much feared Fibonacci cycle line, which in our estimation would turn USD to the downside for a major correction. However, as we come close to that day (September 6 as indicated for weeks in the dollar chart, see Weekly Chart), Dollar Index is, although experiencing increased choppy volatility, fully capable of taking off to reach its previous high of 112.80 or beginning to correct itself down to 110.00 level. Given past performances, an exhausted bullish dollar may still be able to put up surprises just shortly before it collapses. This is why we prefer to give it another week before going in to build up dollar-selling positions aggressively. Against European majors, dollar had pressed upon crucial levels of SWF 1.7500, EUR 0.9000, while threatening GBP 1.4600s. These three levels will likely be once again the hotly contested battleground between bulls and bears in the coming week. With our bias, we envision a scenario that first sees a dollar rally to previous highs (or even new highs) against the Europeans, and then a massive retreat in two weeks. Against CAD, dollar is clearly gaining the upper hand for the final assault above 1.4900 resistance. CAD's rising bottom formation combined with its recent repeated attack on the 1.4900 border is a classic prelude for a pending bullish breakout. AUD suddenly caved down to selling pressures which pursued it nearly down to all-time low of 0.5650; it will fluctuate between 0.5800 and 0.5600 next week. JPY stood to benefit the most this week from Fed's no-hike policy, steadily forcing USD to retreat below the long-held 107.20 support. JPY is currently searching for its next support level to consolidate its newly found strength. Given that the next major support is 114.00 a distance of 300pts away, JPY is not expected to march down there right away. Rather, it will find a new convenient support when it crosses path with a rising trend line at 106.00-105.80 next week. JPY's immediate upside limit will lined off at 107.80. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to buy EUR at 0.8970, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4650, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7000, RRR-100/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9200, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5000, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 106.00, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
 

August 18, 2000
Due to a technical problem with graphics, we are not able to refresh our Weekly Charts and conduct a more than less inspiring weekly analysis at this time. When we are ready (hopefully over the weekend), we will announce to let our viewers know. We apologize.

After a week of hesitation, dollar is firming again by the week's end over the European majors. Against SWF in particular, USD is once pressing against the recent 1.7250 high, threatening to shoot for the 1.7540 target next week. EUR gave up its gain from the border of 0.9200, and shrunk back down to the support of 0.9000, which is a mere 150pts away from its all-time low of 0.8850. The fact of GBP settling below 1.5000 and then 1.4900 carries the heavy weight of bearishness, which might spill over into the coming week to retest the 1.4660 support. JPY continues to swing between the boundaries of 110.10 and 107.20, the latter being a suspected target for the current downside move. In all likeliness, the market will wait to make its next big move after hearing what Fed's FOMC meeting has to say next Tuesday about its rate policy. We will step back a little and let the market make its first move next week before going back in to plan ours. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned.

Bought (long) GBP at 1.4910, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
 

August 11, 2000
As expected, once the mighty DOW broke outside its 10600-10800 range it would embark upon its next 1000pt trending move. Above 10800 resistance DOW is now heading to reclaim 11140 high, and it will thereafter very likely keep on going to re-test its all-time high in the 11700s. For the coming week, though, DOW's maximum upside potential in no more than 11400. On the dollar front, the bulls stopped pointing horns at each other after a brief cat fight amongst themselves. More sure than ever, dollar bulls are to push their way back up to SWF 1.7500, very possibly next week. This would bring the already weak EUR back down to its own all-time low of 0.8850. GBP stands to play of role of neither victor or victim amid this upcoming duel between USD and SWF/EUR, except that it will have its own support and resistance to deal with between 1.4900 and 1.5200, whose wider range is 1.4650-1.5470. CAD's attempt to make a run at 1.5000 failed to materialize, but it is bouncing backing from 1.4800 support to go at the 1.5000 benchmark again next week. AUD remains helplessly trapped in last week's narrow range, although lack of fresh buying support seems to be adding more weight on its 0.5750 support. In all likeliness (since JPY and AUD are often observed to move in sync), it is looking to the direction of JPY for clues of future direction. The next big shoe that is about to drop into the forex market is JPY's pending breakout move. JPY has been straddling sideway for as long as the market is less than clear about change of BOJ's "zero-rate" policy. Conventional wisdom argues that Japan's near-zero rate has hit the bottom, hence long-term yen positions will only stand to enjoy the yields of bouncing rate hikes, which some Japanese lawmakers now favor on the ground that "zero rate" has yet to shock Japan's economy into a full blown recovery. The latest BOJ rate hike (.25%) today may be a signal of willingness to amend the "zero rate" policy. If so, more folks would have to roll back into the market to re-establish their pro-yen positions. However, the market as a whole seems unsure right now as it settles itself right in the middle of 110.00-107.00 range. We too will have to wait and see which border of this range JPY will break out to next. If and when it does, we will have a trending JPY to follow along. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Took profit on JPY's 109.00 buy (long) position at 108.50.
Sold (short) SWF at 1.7000, and took profit at 1.7050.
Bought (long) SWF at 1.7150, and cut loss at 1.7200.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9200, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6870, RRR-100/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 107.20, RRR-100/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5200, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8780, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7550, RRR-100/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4910, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 110.20, RRR-100/+100pts, or close profit by close.
 

August 4, 2000
With US' July unemployment rate unchanged at 4%, a decrease of 108K new jobs last month is raising many eyebrows in the marketplace. Given that this is the first drop of monthly new hires in the last 4 and half years, one cannot help but to reason that this may be a sign of US economy's "soft landing", which should warrant no further economy-cooling rate hikes from Chairman Greenspan soon. However, a closer look at today's job data suggests that while most of the job decrease comes from the government sector, new job increase is taking place among the private enterprises. One can never be so sure whether Allen would not soft-land on the private business as well. If Fed would keep hands off the rate button later this month, some dollar bulls may lack the higher-yield incentive to keep holding their positions. If not, dollar would rise through the roof for the moon. All these fundamental juggling are too early to be of any practical value right now; technically speaking, however, the charts are more readable these days than otherwise. Dollar Index, for example, has shifted into a full blown bullish trend which is expected to follow its trend line resistance toward 112.80 high (see Weekly Charts). Worth mentioning at this time is its next Fibonacci cycle line (sitting on September 6, much revered as the shadow of market God himself) which is without a doubt to mark another significant turning point in dollar movement. Both SWF and EUR are being pushed near their weakest levels against the dollar. In all likeliness, dollar bulls would like to test such levels as SWF 1.7540 and EUR 0.8850 before taking a break. GBP continues to remain passive, but its upside limit is now lowering down to the low 1.5300, while its downside bottom still stands at the low of 1.4660. JPY's 112.00 level remains well protected right now by the layer of resistance between 109.00-110.00; its sellers will now have to back down to the lower 107.00 to regroup strength for their next attempt to climb above 110.00. CAD is to reach 1.5000 next week while AUD will stay narrowly range-bound still. DOW has only to settle outside the narrowing 10600-10800 range for its next 1000pt trend move. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Took profit on EUR's 0.9050 buy (long) position at 0.9080.
Bought (long) SWF at 1.7120, and took profit at 1.7060.
Sold (short) GBP at 1.5070, and took profit at 1.5010.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9300, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6870, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5200, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 107.20, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8850, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7250, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4660, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 110.20, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.

July 28, 2000
As expected, this week has a week of dollar bargain hunting, as dollar weakened early only to gain back stronger by the week's end. Dollar Index finishes the week on a positive note, but its further upside move at the curtsey of its bullish momentum should not topple its trend line resistance of 110.60 (see Weekly Charts). The most obvious trend that has decidedly picked up pace is JPY's retreat from USD. Furthermore, it carries all the characteristics of a slow but steadily, certain yet cunning yen move. Instead of going right to the 110.00 border and bouncing back down, JPY spent weeks just rolling into 109.00s within a narrow trading band and minimum volatility. This moving pattern is indicative of a consolidation that is to support a breakout for the much higher target of 111.80-112.00 zone, where buyers may have a better chance to put up a successful fight. For a day trade quickie, however, JPY 110.20 still presents a buying (long) opportunity. The European majors by and large still remain range-bound for the week, yielding little clue about their long-term trend direction. Near term, though, SWF's stiff retreat from dollar is calling for a counter trade soon, especially if it goes up to reach 1.6860 resistance next Monday. Similarly, both EUR 0.9200 and GBP 1.5000 would present day trade buying opportunities. DOW is sitting at the critical support of 10500; if another rally takes place next Monday, then it would have room stretch up to 10800s before falling back to 10600s for support. Closing below 10500, however, would encourage the bears to bluff colder stares at the bulls, making 10330 the market's next target. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Bought SWF at 1.6720, and cut loss at 1.6770.
Bought GBP at 1.5000, and took profit at 1.5060.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.9200, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5000, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6860, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 110.20, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
 

July 21, 2000
If Chairman Greenspan says "I will kill you, but not now," the market would deem it to mean that it is ok to live for the day. Such was the rationale that ruled the financial market this week amid its concerns for what Allen might say to Congress about his rate policy. He might raise interest still, he seemed to warn the market, but not now. Fundamentalists would reason further that Fed is signaling its desire to remain quiet during the months preceding election. Whatever the case may be for the factors fueling the market move this week, they have not had the effect to disrupt the market's technical moving pattern. DOW for one repeatedly tested its 10860-10900 resistance zone (which is capped under an extended triangle trend line, see Weekly Charts), but failed to poke above it even with the latest stock rally. Dollar Index for another also dutifully obeyed its resistance channel line (see Weekly Charts); it pulled back from the line after reaching but failing to breach 110.00 projected target. After a week of expectation, JPY sellers finally made its move to probe the 109.00 resistance. In all likeliness, they now have 110.00 psych level in mind going into the coming week. Having marched to 109.00 in one stride, however, JPY is in need of a dip-down breath before rolling back toward 110.00. Hence, a buy (long) entry at 109.00 such as the one we have made does stand a good chance to profit 50pts early next week. The similar prospect has already been blessed for our SWF's 1.6580 sell (short) entry, and will most likely be done so for our EUR's 0.9340 and GBP's 1.5200 sell (short) entries as well. As suggested in Daily Shows, the dollar bullishness has slowed down into a correction phrase, particularly against the European majors. Given a bullish dollar trend that is still going strong, this fall-back would actually offer a welcome opportunity for trend-followers to hop onto the dollar buying wagon. The next key levels for embark upon such a pro-dollar move will be EUR 0.9420, SWF 1.6500, GBP 1.5470, and JPY 108.00. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Bought JPY at 109.00, and took profit at 108.70.
Sold SWF at 1.6580, and took profit at 1.6630.
Sold GBP at 1.5200, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Sold EUR at 0.9340, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.9300, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5000, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6730, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 110.00, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9420, RRR-100/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6500, RRR-100/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 108.00, RRR-100/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5470, RRR-100/+100pts, or close profit by close.
 

July 14, 2000
Dollar overall was up strongly across the board against all major pairs this week. Dow is likely to meet stiff resistance at 10900 next week, which could turn Dow back down toward 10500 area again. If not, we will see DOW bull reborn to roar up another 400-500 points next week. As for the European majors, EUR has only 0.9180 corner to fall to. This low is likely to be tested in the coming week, and equally it is expected to put up a fierce support to uphold the trading pressure from drifting below. JPY is clearly trying to break clean above 108.00 resistance for the 109-110 zone, where buyers definitely waiting to turn the tide back down the other way. The support zone for the anticipated upside move is 106.50-107.00, where sellers will gather to life up the trading range. Dollar index is setting up a stage for a grab-and-reach at the higher 110.00 resistance and indicated that USD has much more room to stretch to the upside. Stay tuned.

Wait to buy EUR at 0.9200, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6820, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4800, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 109.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 110.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9500, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6430, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5200, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 106.70, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.

 

July 7, 2000
Both Dow and dollar finished up a slow week stronger than they started. Holding above its 10500 support, DOW is likely to attempt the previous high of 10870 next. This bullishness is US market may lend a helping hand to dollar as well. Settling firmly above 107.00 against yen, dollar is certain to probe beyond the 108.10 resistance at the higher 109.00-110.00 zone next week. This will make JPY 107.00 a sell (short) entry and 109.00 a buy (long) level, definitely 110.00 a buyers' gathering harbor. Little has been changed for EUR, GBP, CAD, and AUD, thus their trading scenarios and plans remain largely intact from last week. SWF's 1.6200-1.6100 support zone, however, appears to have halted the downside move for now, and may offer firm support to bounce up a move toward 1.6500. The definitive clue for this move has yet to be verified by a day close above 1.6300. For the start of next week, SWF is likely to repeat its seesaw action up and down 1.6200 before developing into a trend heading in either direction later in the week. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Wait to buy EUR at 0.9370, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6500, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5000, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 109.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 110.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9700, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6100, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5380, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 107.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
 

June 30, 2000
This has been a week of interest rate anxiety, and the forex market more or less reacted and responded accordingly. Dollar overall fell weak against against most major (in particularly the European majors) on the assurance of no rate hike. As has open been seen as the case, dollar balanced off its losses to the Europeans by gaining over yen. Since dollar has more to lose to the West as well as to gain from the East, we shall more the same dollar movement pattern in the coming week. Namely, those who are looking to exit buying profit may look at such key levels as EUR .9700, GBP 1.6400, and SWF 1.6100. Likewise, those who are seeking for the next buying entry may wait for JPY 108.00. Both CAD and AUD, the slow movers, will remains sideway range-trade for another week. Worth noting at this time is the developing breakout pattern of DOW, which has now only to close below its 10300 support to finally commence a downside run to the 10K border. Its months-long merging triangle formation has finally yielded a hint that its next major move will be to the downside. Although the implication of a bearish DOW this time remains to be seen, it has typically been more negative than positive. Detailed key support/resistance levels are provided in our refreshed Weekly Charts in their original format. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned. 

Bought GBP at 1.5100 and took profit at 1.5200.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.9480, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6380, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5080, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 108.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9700, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6100, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5400, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 105.30, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
 

June 23, 2000
Dollar Index bounced off 106.00 support this week to close just below the border of 108.00, setting nicely a stage for a further breakout to test the higher 110.00 range nice week. The fundamental fuel for this renewed dollar bullishness is market's anticipation for another round of rate hikes when Greenspan speaks again at next week's FOMC meeting. SWF's settlement above 1.6500 resistance this week is signaling a further retreat to the higher 1.6820 resistance next week. EUR's slide is also heading toward a new bottom of 0.9180. GBP is trapped in 1.5200-1.5000 range; settling a day close beyond either boundary next week would cause it to widen the range by an additional 200 points. JPY is clearly weighing heavily upon 104.00 support, making the previous support of 102.00 an easy target should 104.00 caves in. AUD's bull run is taking a break but its downside correction appears to be limited at 0.6850. Likewise, CAD's 1.4900 should stand in as a firm resistance against further retreat. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned.

Cut loss on JPY's 104.50 sell (short) position at 104.00.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6800, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.9200, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5000, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 105.50, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6330, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at .9500, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5200, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 102.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
 

June 16, 2000
Dollar was range bound for the most of the week but it was well off against all major currencies at the Friday close. Possible decision of Fed leaving interest rate unchanged at the upcoming meeting on Jun 27 and likely large US trade deficit number to be released next Tuesday will test dollar bulls' confidence next week.  Technically dollar will also be likely go lower from here as it closed at the multi-week low and momentum is very negative. We anticipate the dollar upside limits to be not much more than JPY 107.70, SWF 1.6350, GBP 1.5020 and EUR .9520. Its corrective downside, however, will aim at JPY 105.00, SWF 1.6000, GBP 1.5300, and EUR 0.9750. The trading momentum is not in dollar's favor, but we are keeping a close eye on every ominous signs of dollar's recovery as well. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned.

Sold (short) JPY at 106.00 and took profit at 106.45.
Sold (short) SWF at 1.6150 and took profit at 1.6175.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6350, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 107.70, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.9520, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5020, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6000, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 105.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5300, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at .9750, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.

 

June 9, 2000
USD started the week by taking an unexpected sudden tumble, but it ended up the week closing well above its week lows against the majors across the board. It prompts one to suspect whether the market has taken a step back before the all important ECB decision and Japan's GDP number. After the ECB shocked the market by raising interest rates 50 basis points yesterday and today's softer than expected Japanese GDP figure of +0.5% q/q put a dent in the optimism regarding a Japanese economic recovery, USD buyers seem to be aggressive again. This definitely gives dollar huge underlying support at least in the lower levels. For now, the best plan is to wait for the market to come to us by selling (short) GBP at 1.5200 to aim for a revisit to 1.5000. Both EUR and SWF will likely to re-visit their respective key strong levels against the dollar, namely EUR 0.9650 and SWF 1.6300. AUD will likely spend the next week inside its 0.5950-.5750 range. Patience will be the name of game for trading in the coming week, and we will time our entries only at the following key supports and resistance levels. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned.

Bought (long) JPY at 107.00,  and took profit at 106.80.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6700, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 108.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at .9400, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4950, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at .5750, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6300, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 106.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5200, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at .9650, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell CAD at 1.4650, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
 

June 2, 2000
Dollar Index remained weak throughout the week, although it firmed up a little against the yen in the end. A look at its weekly chart would reveal that a lower support of 105.00 may yet be the last target of this current downside correction. At SWF 1.6700 this week, dollar has received support to ready itself for a upside bounce toward 1.7100. If it were to drift the downside, however, sinking below 1.6500 would send SWF against the dollar toward 1.6300s for certain. On the other hand, JPY broke well above 108.10 level yesterday, and it is setting up a retreat for the border of 110.00 next week, where sporadic buying may keep a cap against yen sellers under it. Beyond that, 111.30 should stand firm against any significant upside move within the month. Both EUR and GBP are in a good position to catch more of their upside momentum, with EUR still lurking at its .9500 resistance and GBP climbed clearly above 1.5000. Hence, the buy entries for the duo will be EUR .9250 and GBP 1.4950. As expected, CAD is fast pulling back from its 1.5100 highs for the support of 1.4650 where its downward move will come to a halt to bounce back up a 100pts. CAD's sell zone is definitely 1.4600-1.4650. AUD is still treading downward despite the slowdown of its bearish trend. In all likeliness, AUD's next major buying trend will not take place until after it revisits its low of .5520 from two years ago.

For a longer term and broader prospective outlook at the market development, we have updated our Weekly Charts with weekly bars (instead of daily bars) to include more previous data. Unless and until the price actions break out of our drawing formation, we will keep this format for the entire month of June just to see how the market would behave according to what we anticipate it would do. Detailed weekly analysis will be done in our Weekly Shows as usual. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Sold (short) JPY at 108.00, and took profit at 108.20.
Sold (short) EUR at 0.9500, and took profit at 0.9440.
Sold (short) CAD at 1.4850, and cut loss at 1.4800.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7000, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 110.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at .9250, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4950, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at .5650, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6350, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 107.00, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5350, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at .9650, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell CAD at 1.4630, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.

 

May 26, 2000
The long awaited dollar correction finally shifted into gear on the last trading day of the week, although we had the misfortune of getting caught in a couple of positions against it. With Dollar Index closing below its 110.00 and channel supports, the full scale dollar bearish correction (particularly against the European majors) has been set in motion for the coming week(s), targeting 107.50 level in Dollar Index, or SWF 1.6500s, EUR .9500s, and GBP 1.5400s. JPY will continue its peculiar function as an equalizing factor, remaining little changed or going the opposite way of the Europeans. AUD won't cause buying excitement until it drifts lower and closer into the .5500s, while CAD's next buying will surely come if and when 1.5200 is tested (1.4850 will stand in as a selling support as against any significant downside move). Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for Daily Shows.

Sold (short) SWF at 1.7000, and cut loss at 1.6950.
Sold (short) EUR at .9200, and cut loss at .9250.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7100, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 108.00, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at .9000, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4700, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at .5530, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6500, RRR-200/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 106.00, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5400, RRR-200/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at .9500, RRR-200/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell AUD at .5900, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
 

May 19, 2000
This week's market has mainly been driven by the fundamental news of Fed .5% rate hike. As a result, the dollar strengthened and DOW slid in a classic flight-to-quality market maneuver. The stock players bluffed themselves into thinking that the rate hike would be the end of Greenspan preoccupation with his tightening policy. After the rate hike, they now are staring at each other with the question of "what if Allen hikes again?" In all likeliness, DOW is to retreat lower next week, testing the grounds of 10500. A couple of consecutive day closes below this level would signal an all out DOW retreat to 10K. Dollar on the other hand is enjoying the full benefit of Fed's latest rate hike. In the absence of European central banks matching hikes or intervention, USD is rolling over the European majors without checks. However, when it fully reaches its buying limit, USD will have little option but to correct itself before gaining further. Such a need for correction is now showing on our ATS-2 counter trend system, which based on a formation of severe bearish divergence (see Divergence on our ATS Membership's terminology page) suggests both SWF and EUR selling will stop and be replaced by massive buying (long) entries that are due to come shortly. Despite suffering a couple of buying entries on both GBP and EUR this week, we are confident as ever that a major buying (against USD) opportunity is in the work. The job of catching this dollar correction will rest squarely on how to corner its peaks and time our entries with a cautious cut-loss allowance. JPY alone is bouncing back over USD ahead of its European counterparts. However, its downward move is not expected to dip below 106.50, where yen sellers will once again step in to do their work. All three of SWF, EUR, and GBP are potentially good buying items with a great bouncing opportunity owed to them by the mighty dollar. Cautiously, though, one would have to wait to seed in a good buy (long) position at SWF 1.7550, EUR .8750, and GBP 1.4670. CAD's 1.5000 resistance is holding well against selling pressure, and it is currently rolling back strength against the dollar back toward 1.4850. AUD is in a helpless downward spiral that is unlikely to halt until it lands in last year's low of .5500s. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned for more detailed updates in our Daily Shows.

Cut loss on EUR's .8950 buy (long) position at .8850.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7550, RRR-50/+