Wait to buy EUR at 0.8300, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.8020, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.5300, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5020, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8470, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7800, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 108.20, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
 

October 19, 2000
This has been one of those nose-bleeding days that saw wild market swings in both directions within a single session. As expected, dollar pressed on ever so close against majors' key levels such as SWF 1.8000 and EUR 0.8300. However, dollar's mood swing also wiped out our GBP 1.4520 sell (short) entry before coming right back into our otherwise profit zone. In short, this hasn't been a good day to conduct day trades for a lot of people. Coming up next, we suspect that DOW will still probe further to its downside where 9400s will be found as its support bottom. Dollar will likely to make another advance above previous highs against SWF and EUR before peaking to correct itself back to the downside. For now, we will still be steadfastly waiting for dollar bulls to run themselves to a halt before going in with our plans to buy up EUR and SWF at 0.8300 and 1.8020. Stay tuned.

Sold (short) GBP at 1.4520, and cut loss at 1.4570.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8300, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.8020, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.5300, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5020, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.

 

October 18, 2000
Below the trend line support of 0.5220, AUD is being sucked down toward the abyss of 0.5000, while very little if anything can stop it. Should an upside rally finally takes place from that level, the previous low of 0.5520 will be the targeted correction target. Meanwhile, dollar is expected to remain strong while DOW will roll continuously to the downside well below the 10K support. Both SWF and EUR are expected to retreat from dollar a bit more beyond SWF 1.8000 and 0.8400, before making a convincing comeback with bargain hunting buyers. GBP has just broken below 1.4400 support, indicating that its sellers now have sighted their next target on 1.4200. For now 1.4520 should contain GBP's upside move, while 1.4200 will come into play in a week or two. Stay tuned.

Cut loss on AUD's 0.5250 buy (long) position at 0.5200.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8300, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.8080, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.5300, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5020, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell AUD at 0.5280, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4520, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
 

October 17, 2000
The sun is shining on dollar bulls, as they look good and ready to revisit dollar's pre-intervention highs against majors. Only this time around, USD is technically capable of reaching new highs such as above SWF 1.8000 at 1.8080. EUR's next significant technical support in the uncharted territory will be 0.8300, while GBP will still have to face the benchmark support of 1.4000. For now, however, GBP is being supported by 1.4400 which keeps 1.4200 out of reach, and 1.4200 is the last stand before 1.4000. Instead of running with the bulls, we will stay on the sideline to let the market run itself to a halt. We will then enter at the new dollar highs (if and when USD indeed gets there) to sell dollar short for a downside correction. AUD in our estimation has already bottomed out right on top of a trend line support, and we will merely have to wait to crop up profit from our 0.5250 buy (long) entry. If not blessed, our risk is limited at -50pts. Stay tuned.

Bought AUD at 0.5250, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8300, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.8080, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.5300, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
 

October 13, 2000
As expected, DOW dropped further to the downside; unexpectedly, however, it did so like a dead bird, breaking below 10200 level right to the pavement of 10K again. Based on our Monthly Chart analysis, DOW is doing a bearish "Head-and-Shoulders" development that has a target on 9400 support far below the 10K token support. Dollar slipped a bit more against majors as a result. Consequently, most of our trade orders got triggered and mildly rewarded as well. Interestingly, however, Dollar Index didn't lose much ground as a result of DOW's downfall. In fact, it has managed to gain a few grounds above its trend line support. Perhaps this is an indication that market players are concerned about the certain effect of DOW slide spreading onto the coming Asian and European financial markets. If so, dollar is sure to take on the status of "safe haven" currency amid the pending fears and chaos. As such, we will sit out the coming storms and count our blessing while observing the coming session for better trading clues in the week ahead. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Bought (long) SWF at 1.7540, and took profit at 1.7440.
Bought (long) EUR at 0.8620, and took profit at 0.8640.
Bought (long) AUD at 0.5300, and took profit at 0.5320.
Sold (short) GBP at 1.4740, and took profit at 1.4700.
 

October 12, 2000
As expected, dollar slipped as majors strengthened. Dollar Index has now dipped below its near term supporting trend line, making now a resistance against dollar bulls. Surprise dollar rallies may still be possible ahead, but they are not expected to advance much beyond the buy (long) levels in our trading plans below. Meanwhile, JPY may still carry enough weight to sink dollar further below 107.20 support to stop at 106.60. GBP's upside is limited under 1.4750 by the resistance of its upper channel line. No major breakout moves are expected in the forex market for the rest of the week, but dollar should remain soft as it is affected by a prolonged bearish sentiment in DOW. Below 10600, DOW is expected to probe its downside for firmer support level above 10200. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell JPY at 106.70, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4740, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7540, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8620, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5300, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
 

October 11, 2000
There are mounting signs of majors' advance against dollar in the coming one or two sessions. SWF's 1.7550 level seems to have formed a firm resistance where buyers come in and sellers exit. Should this level be probed again in the coming session, the same patter would likely repeat itself given a weakening dollar index outlook. The same levels in EUR and GBP are 0.8620 and 1.4480. JPY's ongoing advance on the other hand will stalled just above 107.00 level at 107.20, where yen sellers are expected to make their entry. AUD's buying support will continue to be the support zone of 0.5300-0.5280. Should enough buyers come in with us at this level (where it appears for now that only sellers alone exit the market to prevent AUD from going lower), AUD's much anticipated rally would likely to occur. Stay tuned.

Sold (short) SWF at 1.7400, and took profit at 1.7480.
Bought (long) AUD at 0.5300, and took profit at 0.5340.
Wait to sell JPY at 107.20, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7550, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4480, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8620, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5300, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
 

October 10, 2000
The market was quiet on Monday (Columbus Day), very little changed from last Friday's close. Dollar is slightly favored for the time being as the market awaits the release of US PPI number on Friday. Given a less than robust Monday trading, there's not a lot to read on for market's next definitive move. For this week's market outlook, please refer to the latest Weekly Show. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell SWF at 1.7400, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4660, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8830, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5300, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 110.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
 

October 6, 2000
As expected, the market is now trading in the low range of CAD 1.4900s and AUD 0.5300s. Both are expected to hold in the near term, so our entry plans will not change as indicated below. JPY's 110.00 level also appears to be feared at this time; if it is reached within a short order (for example in the coming session), it is highly expected to put up stiff resistance that can cause a downside slide capable of dipping below 109.00. If it hovers in the lower range of 109.00s for another couple of trading days and then goes to test 110.00, chances are that it will break above it for the higher 111.80 target. Breaking clearly above 1.7400 resistance, SWF sellers are once again psyched up to bait out the central bankers by challenging the previous twin-peaks of 1.7900s in the week(s) ahead.  Both EUR and GBP are also in sell mode, having much to go to the downside. To wrap up the week, we will leave EUR and GBP alone, while laying in wait for day trade opportunities in the others. Stay tuned Weekly Show.

Sold (short) SWF at 1.7330, and took profit at 1.7500.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7400, RRR-50/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell CAD at 1.4900, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5300, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 110.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
 

October 5, 2000
As expected, dollar bulls made their move without much delay, but not before they first retreated low enough for us to join them by grabbing an SWF sell (short) entry at 1.7280 according to our plan. While dollar allowed CAD to roll back for some of its lost ground, it also gingerly advanced against AUD ever so closely to 0.5300. In all likeliness, dollar bulls are to let CAD recover back down to the low 1.4900s, while getting ready to gang up on AUD to at least a touch down upon 0.5300 level (which is supported by a channel line). Needless to say, it will be worth a buy (long) trade at AUD 0.5300 if and when it gets down there for the first time. For those of us who missed out CAD's buy (long) entry from above 1.5100, the next opportunity will be to wait for a sell (short) entry from 1.4900. Elsewhere, there will be a near term day trade opportunity coming up as JPY is to hit its upside target of 110.10 and pull back. One may budget enough money to do a hit-and-run buy (long) trade right there at JPY 110.10. Stay tuned.

Sold (short) SWF at 1.7280, and took profit at 1.7380.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7330, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell CAD at 1.4900, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5300, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 110.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.

 

October 4, 2000
Besides a bullish outlook in Dollar Index chart, there are other definitive signs of dollar getting ready for a major post-intervention comeback against SWF, EUR, and GBP. SWF sellers have consistently challenged its 1.7400 resistance level with higher and higher fall back dips. The next such fall back limit will be the zone of 1.7300-1.7280, while a day close above 1.7400 would trigger an all-out breakout that can reach as high as 1.7700s. EUR's buying interest seems to have dissipated under 0.8800, and a break below 0.8830 would arouse another selling frenzy to go down into the low 0.8600 level. GBP's reluctance to join the selling crowd is finally caving down, as it is targeting 1.4400 level at the minimum. GBP's near term upside potential should be no higher than 1.4670. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell GBP at 1.4670, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8830, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7280, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.5150, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5300, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.

 

October 3, 2000
Due to some technical difficulties with our new website server, we are unable to provide a functional ForexATS membership service at this time. However, we are continuing to post our forex analysis as usual and viewers are welcome to visit our site free of charge. Please rest assured that we are working day and night to iron out the bugs so that the membership site can be promptly brought to interested viewers.

SWF briefly tested its 1.7200 support but barely missed our sell (short) entry order there before swing back up above 1.7300. GBP came close to its channel resistance near 1.4800 before giving up to selling pressure. EUR's upside ceiling seems to be 0.8900 for now. We continue to suspect GBP's 1.4800 to be a battleground between bulls and bears, but from there up GBP will have difficulty to advance much higher. Hence, we will wait to sell it short there again with a wider margin of risk allowance. Meanwhile, we will bring up SWF's sell (short) entry from 1.7200 where we missed the dip to 1.7270 where we may be blessed. CAD continues to retreat toward the previous peak of 1.5150, where buyers are highly expected to outnumber sellers. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell GBP at 1.4800, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8900, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7270, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy CAD at 1.5150, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5300, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.

 

September 29, 2000
As expected, GBP trekked back up to 1.4660 resistance where we made our sell (short) entry and took its profit at close according to plan. Once again GBP's near term outlook is showing all kinds of ominous signs of sliding, a move that is corrective in nature to off load some of its intervention gains from last Friday. However, GBP's stubborn delay of this downside move makes us wonder if it still has in mind the thought of kissing its upper channel line at 1.4800 before taking the nose dive. As such, we will back up our next round of sell (short) entry to 1.4800 at the minimum risk of -50pts for the coming session. Both SWF and EUR are quiet for now and would most likely float with GBP's moves. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Sold (short) GBP at 1.4660, and took profit at 1.4630.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8920, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7200, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4800, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.

 

September 28, 2000
As expected, dollar swung back up strong after first giving in grounds to find solid supports near SWF 1.7200, EUR 0.8900, and GBP 1.4700. Although SWF weakened first against dollar's newly found strength, GBP is still expected to give up much of its intervention gains back down to 1.4400 level (at least). The coming session will likely see more of the same kind of probing or testing waters by both buyers and sellers, with more pressure weighing on GBP stand to hold above 1.4600. We will allocate a small portion of today's SWF profit to risk a GBP sell (short) entry at 1.4660. Stay tuned.

Sold (short) SWF at 1.7180, and took profit at 1.7330.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7540, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8640, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4400, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8920, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4660, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.

 

September 27, 2000
If last Friday's intervention still scares the market, dollar should have headed down lower to explore its intervention low after two days of trading this week. But it didn't. Instead, it still holds high above its intervention lows, looking undeterred. Although dollar is likely to test its lows again in the coming session, its intend would be to assure its supports and swing back up again. Our long term indicator still favors a dollar positive sentiment, while our near term systems remain more and more mute. Being the biggest gainer last week, GBP now stands to lose the most should dollar begin to creep up against it. As time drags on, GBP's upper channel line is coming down to mark 1.4800 as its maximum upside ceiling where sellers would replace buyers. Its downside move could slide as low as 1.4200, provided that 1.4400 level will offer initial support. SWF's downside move should find 1.7200 a tough support to break below, while EUR would have a hard time to climb above 0.8920. Stay tuned.

Wait to buy SWF at 1.7540, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8640, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4400, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7180, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8920, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4800, RRR-100/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
 

September 26, 2000
As expected, the market is testing waters in direction against last week's intervention. Everyone wants to see how sincerely concerned US and Japan are about weakening European currencies. With G7 due to wrap up their latest meeting on Friday (9/29), the market is expected to make no significant headway this week against central banks much beyond slowly lifting dollar closer to pre-intervention levels. Dollar may advance gingerly back to SWF 1.7660, EUR 0.8640, and GBP 1.4230. If G7 fails to sneeze the same sneeze by Friday about European majors' trend, dollar bulls will get the green light to charge out of farms again. Stay tuned.

Wait to buy SWF at 1.7540, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8640, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4400, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7000, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9170, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4870, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
 

September 22, 2000
Without much fanfare, dollar sell-off finally took place as GBP surprisingly led majors' rally against USD as well as our expectation. GBP's upside move now carries the appearance of going for 1.4660 resistance, although 1.4450 should offer initial resistance if GBP is to over stretch itself to get there in the coming session. SWF will have the 1.7500 level to deal with before the lower 1.7000 support. SWF's upside resistance will be 1.7800 for now. EUR's recovery is relatively slow, which if fully developed would target 0.8850. Its near term buying support is 0.8520. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Wait to buy SWF at 1.7750, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) EUR at 0.8550, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) GBP at 1.4220, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell (short) GBP at 1.4450, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.

 

September 21, 2000
As expected, dollar chipped into new lows against EUR and AUD, while balancing its heavy gains by light losses to both JPY and GBP. GBP's lone venture to the upside among European majors looks daring but too timid to materialize a sustainable bullish breakout at this time. A lot will still have to depend on when dollar advance ceases against EUR and SWF. JPY on the other hand seems contend with sideway straddling. As such, we will leave JPY and GBP alone in the coming session(s) to concentrate on SWF, EUR, and AUD buying (long) opportunities. In all likeliness, dollar bulls are still having an eyeball on the lucrative SWF 1.8000. Once this target is reached, the tide will turn against dollar. Both EUR 0.8450 and AUD 0.5350 are sitting on technical supports in their respective uncharted territories; if selling is to be replaced by buying, these are the price levels on which to occur. Stay tuned.

Bought (long) EUR at 0.8450, and took profit at 0.8475.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8100, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy (long) EUR at 0.8450, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at 0.5350, RRR-100/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
 

September 20, 2000
Although dollar is running against increasing bearish divergence (trading higher with less momentum), it is still weighing heavily both EUR and AUD, capable of sinking them to further new lows. The name of the game is still to let the dollar bulls run their course and reach for their extra mile. SWF spiked up into 1.7900s and quickly darted back down below 1.7800, indicating that dollar bulls are giving more thoughts about reaching the benchmark SWF 1.8000. GBP too is showing more sign of pending upside moves. We will give dollar bulls one more day to stretch themselves out. Stay tuned.

Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8100, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy (long) EUR at 0.8450, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) GBP at 1.3900, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) AUD at 0.5350, RRR-100/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell (short) JPY at 106.00, RRR-100/+100pts, or settle profit by close.

 

September 19, 2000
With dollar weighing heavily upon AUD while continuing to roll back strong against the European majors, it is becoming clear that dollar bulls' next move will be to keep probing the limits of majors' weakness. Expected dollar highs this week are SWF 1.8000, EUR 0.8450, SWF 1.3880, AUD 0.5350, and CAD 1.5000. We will let the dollar bulls run the distance before going in to haul away a couple of cattle. Meanwhile, JPY will firm up against dollar as dollar is strengthening over others. The next JPY support is expected to be 106.00.  Please notice that DOW's ATS trend signal has reversed from buying to selling. Stay tuned.

Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8100, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy (long) EUR at 0.8450, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) GBP at 1.3880, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) AUD at 0.5350, RRR-100/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell (short) JPY at 106.00, RRR-100/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
 

September 15, 2000
As expected, SWF backed up into 1.7700s before turning around for a speedy dip to our long anticipated downside target of 1.7500, courtesy of ECB's (European Central Bank) verbal threat of intervention. As planned, we made an SWF buy (long) entry at 1.7700 which was in a nice position to catch the whole distance of +200pts. But, as it is often the case, the market rose against us just high enough to trigger our 1.7750 cut loss order before nosing down below 1.7500. Perhaps this is (as some viewers insist) the doing of market's big boys who are reading our trade plans against us, or perhaps this is the showing of market's poetic justice to carve back a bite of our early boastful profit. In our opinion, the latter is more likely. Now that SWF dipped down to complete its touchdown at 1.7500, the dollar bulls have one less concern to be worried about as they turn to focus once again on the benchmark 1.8000. We will back up our SWF's buy (long) orders a bit to let the market make this move. Our next main battle line will be drawn at SWF 1.8000. We will do a hit-and-run buy (long) trade at SWF's previous high of 1.7920. Both EUR and GBP are near their crucial lows which would turn to be major technical buying levels if given the right credible intervention scares. We move down their buy (long) entries to 0.8480 and 1.3900. JPY seems to flirt with 108.00 level again, so we will stay off its buying plan for now. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Bought (long) SWF at 1.7700, and cut loss at 1.7750.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7920, RRR-50/+100pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy (long) EUR at 0.8480, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) GBP at 1.3900, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
 

September 14, 2000
The market slowed down quite a bit, lacking volumes to trade definitively in any direction. Beside GBP, no other majors are showing clear signs of buying at this time. The pending GBP rally will be of corrective nature, recovering losses from 1.4000 to 1.4500. Its near term or mid term buying power will not be expected to go higher than 1.5660 resistance. The general technical outlook for near term and mid term forex market is still of a peaked dollar needing a sizable downside correction (giving back some of its recent gains back the majors). Given dollar's recent new highs against the European units, however, the market is still little too apprehensive about its upside potential to see its turning. When such a fear is calmed down a bit in a couple of more days, dollar correction will take place still. As such, we will try to re-establish our buy (long) positions against USD at the prices below. Stay tuned.

Took profit on SWF's 1.7800 buy (long) position at 1.7650.
Took profit on SWF's 1.7900 buy (long) position at 1.7650.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.7700, RRR-50/+200pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.7800, RRR-300/+300pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.7900, RRR-300/+400pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy (long) EUR at 0.8500, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) GBP at 1.4000, RRR-150/+200pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy (long) JPY at 107.50, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
 

September 13, 2000
As expected, SWF headed down into the 1.7500s, JPY went up for 107.00, and GBP sank below 1.4000. Although SWF came down near but short of 1.7500 support, its immediate subsequent bounce back into the 1.7700s was alarming. It prompted us to suspect dollar bulls' ability to put up another fight for reaching their goal of 1.8000 before giving it all up for a south-bound correction. As such, we have decided to take profit of our well deserved SWF 1.7900 and 1.7800 buy (long) positions by exiting them at the coming TYO (Tokyo) open. Should SWF continue to move up toward 1.8000, we will repeat our buy (long) entries accordingly. No changes on EUR's buy (long) entry at 0.8500 and GBP's at 1.3920. JPY's selling move will hit a ceiling at 107.60 before coming down for support in the low 106.00s. Starting today we will add a Monthly Chart link in the Weekly Chart page. Whereas our weekly charts are done on daily bars (five bars form a week's length), our monthly charts are done on weekly bars (four bars form a week's length). A monthly chart would give us an earth-bound view from the moon about the market, putting long term trends in perspective. The first monthly chart analysis and commentaries were done and posted as June 1 Weekly Show; more than three months later, many of its predictions may be still holding true. We will update our Monthly Charts at the start of every month. Stay tuned.

Holding buy (long) SWF at 1.7800, to be settled at TYO open.
Holding buy (long) SWF at 1.7900, to be settled at TYO open.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.7800, RRR-300/+300pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.7900, RRR-300/+400pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8500, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.3920, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 107.50, RRR-100/+100pts, or settle profit by close.

 

September 12, 2000
SWF is meeting its initial support of 1.7700, which is holding up its downward movement from reaching our 1.7500 profit exit target. With the lacking momentum to the upside, however, SWF will have to drift lower before additional sellers may be attracted to trade it back up toward 1.8000. SWF 1.7500 is merely a small bus stop from Berlin to Moscow. Hence, we are sticking to our original plans, waiting to buy more SWF if it goes to 1.8000 or waiting to exit buying profit when it comes down to 1.7500. EUR too looks ready for a buying rally if and when it comes near 0.8500. JPY on the other hand appears ready for an upside move from 105.00 to 107.00. GBP's menacing but steady drift toward the benchmark low of 1.4000 must be enough for long term buyers to squeeze their knees together. When they do finally wet pants inside, GBP buying rally will occur, but not before 1.4000 is briefly broken. Stay tuned.

Holding buy (long) SWF at 1.7800, RRR-300/+300pts.
Holding buy (long) SWF at 1.7900, RRR-300/+400pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-300/+500pts.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8500, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.3920, RRR-50/+150pts, or settle profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 105.00, RRR-100/+200pts, or settle profit by close.

 

September 8, 2000
As expected, Dollar Index has poked a new high and peaked there right on the Fibonacci cycle line. Sadly, it advanced just high enough to force out our primary SWF buy (long) position, but not high enough to grand our secondary entry (both would have profited handsomely). We laid out a nice trading plan to catch the dollar peak, but the market power got the better of it and ripped open our net to let out the catch. As the dollar is about to take on its own correction (for sure as we called for), volatility is expected to increase to render us "innocent" cut losses. As such, we will have to widen our net by increasing our risk. The first major dollar downside target is SWF 1.7500 support. To catch the slide down, the initial SWF buy (long) entry is still 1.7800. Stay tuned.

Cut loss on SWF's 1.7800 buy (long) position at 1.7900.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.7800, RRR-300/+300pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.7900, RRR-300/+400pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-300/+500pts.

 

September 7, 2000
The much suspected "dollar surprise" keeps surprising the market, as it is now marching into the uncharted territory against SWF and EUR. It also sent GBP down to the its lowest level in 7 years. Also finally arrived is the much talked-about Fibonacci cycle line that marks dollar's next turning point. Dollar is red hot right now; it is facing a period of cool-off or melt-down. From this point on, any hint of central bank intervention or hair-raising rumors would cause dollar bulls to stampede over each other for profit exit. In any word, a sudden single-day dollar drop down to SWF 1.7500s from the current level (or even from the benchmark high of 1.8000) is very much in the work. For whatever our technical understanding of market behavior is worth, we will have to take our own medicine to see if it really works this time. So long as we put in place RRR risk control mechanism, we won't lose our sleep over it. The time has come to dance with the devil. Stay tuned.

Bought (long) SWF at 1.7800, RRR-100/+200pts.
Wait to buy (long) SWF at 1.8000, RRR-100/+300pts.
Wait to buy (long) EUR at 0.8420, RRR-200/+200pts.
Wait to buy (long) GBP at 1.4200, RRR-200/+200pts.
 

September 6, 2000
As expected, the "dollar surprise" was proven true as dollar bulls came back from US' Labor Day and went straight to work, forcing the big three European majors once again to their critically weak levels. Unfortunately, both of our SWF and EUR sell orders barely missed their entries by a few points, and so too was our JPY sell position's profit exit. What would have been a day of hefty profit (hundreds of points) ended up yielding to us only a meager +20pts. But, as they say in Japan, "C'est la vie!" Such is life for forex trading. Coming up soon, though, will be the big trades that we have been casting net to catch, the pending dollar correction (due to take place by the week's end). We will try to chase after the dollar bulls one more time, and then back off the market to wait for the big shoe to drop. Stay tuned.

Sold (short) JPY at 105.60, and took profit at 105.80.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7350, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.8950, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4600, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 108.00, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7800, RRR-200/+200pts.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8520, RRR-200/+200pts.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4200, RRR-200/+200pts.

 

September 5, 2000
With US market out on Labor Day, dollar quietly regained back half of its lost ground from last Friday against the three European majors. We remain suspicious of a possible dollar surprise rally (capable of reaching new highs) in the coming three days before a major downside correction is expected soon after that. To catch this "dollar surprise" we will go in to buy it up by selling (short) SWF 1.7250, EUR 0.9000, and GBP 1.4620 at minimum risk of -50pts each. Stay tuned.

Sold (short) JPY at 105.60, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close. Wait to sell SWF at 1.7250, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9000, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4620, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 108.00, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7700, RRR-200/+200pts.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8520, RRR-200/+200pts.
Wait to buy (long) GBP at 1.4200, RRR-200/+200pts.
 

September 1, 2000
Our ATS-3 trend following system has produced a reversal signal, switching from selling JPY to buying it now. Our ATS-2 counter trend system, however, is still pro-selling, and even more so for the time being it is screaming for JPY sales due to severe near term bullish divergence (pointing to charting's upside, or toward 107.50), and so is the day trade ATS-1 system. As such, there is a good chance that the near term JPY is going to break out to test the zone of 107.00-50-108.00 against the call of its trend reversal. For the coming session, we will stick to our yesterday's plan to sell yen short, upgrading the entry from 105.00 to 106.30 at a reduced -50pt risk. Trading back the other way around, however, we will wait to catch a buy (long) entry at 108.00 to come back with the reversed trend. For now, dollar remains very bullish against the European majors which are all holding their grounds near their weakest levels. Dollar Index, too, is re-testing its own 112.80 high repeatedly; in all likeliness, it is to probe above that level to establish new highs before the upcoming Fibonacci cycle next week. Beyond those critical levels, dollar would once again enter into uncharted territory against EUR and SWF while return GBP to George Soros era of 1992. For the next Weekly Show, we will attempt to identify these new possible targets with our charting analysis, while examining the pending opportunities to trade on a dollar correction. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell JPY at 106.30, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 108.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7700, RRR-200/+200pts.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8520, RRR-200/+200pts.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4200, RRR-200/+200pts.
 

August 31, 2000
Although settling the last session near yesterday's close, dollar did as expected probe GBP's downside. SWF and EUR also back down to their own weak levels before rallying back to yesterday's level. True to its own calling, Dollar Index did a hit-and-run act to brush its 112.80 high. All these activities are indicative of two things: 1) dollar bulls' temptation to push for higher dollar highs, and 2) growing choppiness reflecting market's anxiety about a dollar correction. We will keep watching again next session; unless dollar reaches such key levels as SWF 1.7700 and EUR 0.8520, we won't make a move on them. Big trades are coming up. Let us wait and see. Stay tuned.

Wait to sell JPY at 105.00, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7700, RRR-200/+200pts.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8520, RRR-200/+200pts.
 

August 30, 2000
Contrary to our expectation, few buyers cared enough to show up with us at GBP 1.4650, allowing the sheer weight of selling to crack below 1.4600 and drive us out of 1.4650 buy (long) entry. Expectedly, however, Dollar Index is now surging ahead to re-test the border of 112.00, which bodes well with our suspicion of a pending probe of 112.80 high (Dollar Index high of 5/19/00). We will now have to wait till next week before planning to trade on dollar correction. For now, the clean breakdown of GBP 1.4650 is troubling, because between here and 1992's low 1.4068, there are no major supports that can hold out against further selling. It remains to be seen whether this development would lead to play out the 1.4000s scenario for GBP, but it certainly firms a prolonged bearish trend our trend indicator has long been insisting (see Daily Chart and Data/News Table). JPY appears to function once again as a balance factor to equalize the dollar gain, as it will weigh on USD as long as USD weighs on the Europeans. With exception of JPY, we will wait out the next session to let the market do what it may in favor of the dollar. Stay tuned.

Bought (long) GBP at 1.4650, and cut loss at 1.4600.
Wait to sell JPY at 105.00, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
 

August 29, 2000
DOW is surging ahead to reclaim its 11420 target (4/12/00's high), lending much support to boost Dollar Index' recovery above 111.00 level. This bodes well with our anticipation that Dollar Index is still aiming at its 112.80 high (5/19/00) before the arrival of the next Fibonacci turning point next week. As such, we will still gingerly go with pro-dollar trades in the coming session(s). GBP's 1.4650 support carries a lot of weight, as it is the last significant support before the 1.4068 low of 1992's devaluation. As much as sellers would take it down to test 1.4650 soon, they would also shrink away from it at any sign of significant buying order. Thus, a GBP bounce off 1.4650 support is highly expected, if it is to be tested in the coming session. Meanwhile, GBP's near term selling ceiling has come down from 1.5000 to 1.4850. SWF will continue to swing wildly between 1.7000 and 1.7500, so we will wait at either border to make our entries. EUR is expected to mildly stretch out more room between 0.8900 and 0.9200. Stay tuned.

Sold (short) JPY at 106.00, and took profit at 106.40.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8900, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4650, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7000, RRR-100/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9200, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4850, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 105.30, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.

 

August 25, 2000
Dollar dipped into JPY 106.00s and just low enough below SWF 1.7150 to render us another cut loss. Although the selling momentum is carrying the day against USD, the Dollar Index' technical outlook is still quite bullish, suggesting that dollar is poised but not yet ready for a full scale downside correction (which we firmly believe is due later near September 6). Surprise dollar rallies may still be very much in the days ahead. Hence, as bruised as we are this week, we will continue to maintain a pro-dollar trading posture, but will back down to lower support levels of SWF 1.7000 and JPY 106.00 to buy up the retreating dollar with larger risk allowance. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Sold (short) SWF at 1.7150, and cut loss at 1.7100.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8970, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4650, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7000, RRR-100/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9200, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5000, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 106.00, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
 

August 24, 2000
Fed's decision to leave its interest rate unchanged also left BOJ's rate .25% rate hike unchallenged, thus making the yen yield that much more appealing to buyers who are working hard to break below 107.20 support. Should JPY probe into the 106.00s in the coming session, then 106.30 would offer some firm support to uphold the dollar. Likewise, dollar should also receive buying support at SWF 1.7150. Keep in mind that the dollar bullish trend is still red hot, so the current cooling down should be viewed as one of a few more dollar buying chances before its major downside correction near September 6. Stay tuned.

Cut loss on JPY's 108.30 sell (short) position at 107.80.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7540, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8900, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4650, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 109.80, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7150, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9070, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5000, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 106.30, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
 

August 23, 2000
Fed left its interest rate alone for now, while signaling its preparedness to tighten rates again in the future should there be warning signs of inflation. "Soft landing" of a cooling US economy appears to be on Fed's mind at this time, might it be for the Election season or not. For those of us who failed to hop on the dollar buying wagon, the next strategy will be to wait for our chance to overturn the running bulls. The immediate entry points for such a trade will be the previous dollar highs of SWF 1.7540, EUR 0.8850, GBP 1.4650, and JPY 109.80. We will place the following orders there to catch +70pt day trade profit potentials. Stay tuned.

Sold (short) JPY at 108.30, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7540, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8850, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4650, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 109.80, RRR-50/+70pts, or close profit by close.
 

August 22, 2000
The Weekly Charts page was fixed and refreshed on Saturday. Viewers are welcome to take a look at the latest chart formation of the currency they are trading. The two most important charts that we are paying attention to right now are the Dollar Index chart and SWF chart. The latter is pressing ahead to 1.7540 high, while the dollar chart has a Fibonacci cycle marker looming up early next month. Both are suggesting that a big time market event is in the making. For the coming session, however, dollar is likely to position itself for an advance toward 1.7540, as the market waits for Fed's word on its rate hike policy (to be announced at 2:15pm EST US). In any case, dollar is expected to stay firm against the majors. We will try to catch on the dollar buying wagon, while waiting at the dollar significant dollar highs to sell it. Stay tuned.

Cut loss on GBP's 1.4910 buy (long) position at 1.4860.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.7240, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9100, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.4950, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 108.30, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7540, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.8850, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4650, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 109.80, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
 

August 18, 2000
Lacking fresh fundamental fuel until next Tuesday (8/22/00's FOMC meeting where Fed gets to work on its rate policy again), the market is really not in the right mood for trading when the world's dominating news is none other than the doomed Russian submariners under the Barents Sea. Here we would like to take the opportunity to express our greatest condolences to our Russian viewers who we hope would relay our message in thought to the victims. As we stumble forward with our trading, let us hope that all future wars between nations, banks, or peoples be planned and played on the battlefield of forex market. Stay tuned for Weekly Show.

Wait to sell EUR at 0.9220, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6870, RRR-100/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5200, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 107.50, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.9050, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7350, RRR-100/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4910, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 109.20, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
 

August 17, 2000
The market activity continues to remain less than inspiring. In lieu of catching up a small fry with our JPY 109.00 sell (short) ticket, it bit us a little bit in the last session. Although aiming at JPY 110.00 level, dollar is still half-hearted when it comes to definitively challenging it. It may be looking down at the rising 107.50 support to pick up sufficient strength for the up go. We will now use JPY 109.20 as a near term resistance to enter a buy (long) position for a short distance with the slide down (the 107.50 scenario). Stay tuned.

Cut loss on JPY's 109.00 sell (short) position at 108.50.
Wait to sell EUR at 0.9220, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.6870, RRR-100/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.5200, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 107.50, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy EUR at 0.9050, RRR-100/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.7350, RRR-100/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.4910, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 109.20, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.

 

August 16, 2000
As planned, we sold JPY short at 109.00. Given the sleepish market outlook, we will narrow its profit target down to +50pts. So too has been revised for several of our following trade plans below. Since the market will have to make its next big move before we can get a better reading of its future "mood," we will just have to sit and wait while letting our well protected trading orders work as they may. Stay tuned.