Cut loss on AUD's .6520 sell (short) at .6570.
Took profit on JPY's 102.50 buy (long) at 102.30.
Sold (short) SWF at 1.5900, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close. Wait to buy GBP at 1.6000, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6300, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 101.30, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 102.80, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell AUD at .6650, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
 

December 24, 1999
Although the new millennium won't officially start but for another year to pass by, it doesn't matter for the most of us who only gets excited upon seeing the first of the four annual digits change from 1 to 2, something that won't happen for another 1000 years when humanity will most likely look at what we do today as a laughing stock. As such, we all might as well make a funny face and flip a finger. In other words, the trading and its volatility will likely go on in the final holiday week despite the fact that many may turn off their computers early. As we have cited numerous times over the years, the year end thin market is often a period full of surprises; like a surface of quiet lake, even a small stone cast into the serenity will cause a major lasting ripple across the lake, such as the market place before the New Year, not to mention this one which in itself has packed plenty of anxiety.

On the bigger outlook, we review our ATS-3 (long term) and ATS-1 (short term) trend following indicator which are still selling (short) GBP and SWF, while buying (long) JPY and DOW. However, a severe and potentially explosive counter movement patterns are also being detected by our counter-trend ATS-2 system on all majors across the board. Although USD is slowed to a quiet mutual stand, our bias is leaning to favor a its continued strength over European majors while losing out against yen whose 100.00 level still remains a strong suspicious target in the near future. To be on the safer side, we will plan all of our next week's trades to catch 50pt profits at key support and resistance levels. Detailed illustrations are provided in our Weekly Chart page. Merry Christmas to all our viewers and fellow traders. Stay tuned, and watch us dancing into the new century.

Cut loss on JPY's 102.00 buy (long) at 102.50.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.6000, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 104.00, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6000, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at .6400, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6300, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell AUD at .6520, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 102.20, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.5800, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
 

December 17, 1999
Dollar's choppiness near the height of its 2-month up trend this week signals the market readiness to run away from it when and if it sees fit. The remaining question is what would set off the final scare that could lead to a major dollar correction to the downside. For quite a while now we have been expecting that the DLR index will reach and peak at 103.30, but the choppy sessions have been keeping it to shrink away consistently from under 103.00. Hence, with the increasing bearish divergence against its upside move, the dollar index' 103.30 will serve as a mutual target for the buyers to step out and sellers to step in. On the rising DOW, it is also pressing against both a record high and a confirming bearish divergence. Like Lego blocks stacked at an angle, DOW's current outlook is intuitively heading higher and higher toward 11500 for a more and more inevitable collapse (one that would give up at least a quick 500pt). For trading the majors next week, we will widen awaiting net to hopefully catch a couple of big ones to pack up for the holiday weekend. The trade plans are provided below as usual. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned.

Cut loss on AUD's .6400 sell (short) at .6450.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5980, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6000, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at .6390, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 105.00, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell  GBP at 1.6300, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell  SWF at 1.5750, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell AUD at .6520, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 102.50, RRR-50/+150pts, or close profit by close.
 

December 10, 1999
USD started the week by taking an unexpected sudden tumble, but it ended up the week charging back from all of its week lows against the majors across the board. It prompts one to suspect whether the market has taken a much needed break from its dollar buying spree only to restart it again just in time for Christmas. The coming week will see a familiar dollar trade-off between caving in to JPY and gaining over EUR, GBP, and SWF. For now, the most obvious trade to plan is to sell (short) GBP at 1.6300 to aim for a slide to 1.6130. Both EUR and SWF will have to re-visit their respective key weak levels against the dollar, namely EUR 1.0000 and SWF 1.6000. AUD will likely spend another week inside its .6400-.6300 band. Patience will be the name of game for trading in the coming week. We will time our entries only at the following key supports and resistance levels. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned.

Took profit on AUD's .6400 sell (short) at .6350.
Bought (long) SWF at 1.5800, and took profit at 1.5750.
Wait to buy AUD at .6300, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.6130, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6000, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 103.30, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell AUD at .6400, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6300, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.5650, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 101.50, RRR-50/+100pts, or close profit by close.
 

December 3, 1999
As DOW shot up to close the week nearly its historical high, DLR index' upside move fails to reflect such a strong bullish move, and it is showing a few signs of exhaustion.  However, given that it too closes the week on the high note, DLR index' 103.30 resistance is likely to still attraction attention in the coming week.  In terms of SWF and EUR, which more or less mirror the movement pattern of DLR index, we should still have to be concerned with the rising potential breakdown of two major psychological barriers, SWF 1.6000 and EUR 1.0000.  In case these two barriers break down, SWF will have 1.6300 to back up to while EUR will have to free fall toward 98.80 for support (see Weekly Charts).  GBP too is holding firm above its 61.8% correction level of 1.5980, and unlike its European counterparts it seems ready to bounce up against USD for a return to its two other Fibonacci prices (1.6130 and 1.6300) in the near term.  JPY is in a less readable condition, as it has spent most of the week trapped in the narrow range between 102.00-103.00.  Once break out of this range, JPY should pack enough force to travel an additional 200pts in either direction.  The ever looming bullish divergence, however, leans our bias to a JPY upside breakout. CAD's upside move is stopped cold by a powerful descending trend line, so its upside potential is limited at 1.4850 and its downturn will be well supported by 1.4720.  AUD is a simple buy .6300 and sell .6400 game, at 50/50pt risk reward ratio.  For day trade purpose, we have prepared the following trade plans.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned.

Sold (short) JPY at 102.50, and took profit at 102.70.
Wait to sell JPY at 102.30, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy JPY at 104.00, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6050, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.5950, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.5850, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.6000, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell AUD at .6400, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at .6300, RRR-50/+50pts, or close profit by close.

 

November 26, 1999
At great sacrifice to JPY, USD is managing to hold on to its gains over European major, a classic trade-off that is seen every time yen makes a big move against dollar lately. Closing well below its 103.30 support, JPY is to certainly probe the psychological support of 100.00 next week. JPY 100.00 is on the other hand a mere token support, since it is not particularly sitting on any technical support of either trend line or channels. However, just because it is a benchmark number, it is highly expected to attract day traders for an upside bounce. To ride the move down to 100.00, 103.30 now serves as a buying resistance. On the European front, the great euro is likely to test and probe the potentials at its very own benchmark level of 1:1 against USD, at which level rumors and fears of central bank intervention will be heard throughout the market place. Its SWF equivalence will be the 1.5900-1.6000 zone, while GBP will have its 1.6000 support tested by sellers. For the coming week, we will continue to monitor the DLR index chart, which although briefly poked its 101.50 resistance settles nonetheless below it, a sign that could be taken as an omen for the pending dollar correction still. In any case, we will take a little more risk, waiting to trade both ways at key support and resistance levels. ATS-3 trend signals are unchanged, still buying DOW and JPY while selling GBP and SWF. Enjoy your weekends and stay tuned.

Cut loss on SWF's 1.5650 buy (long) at 1.5850.
Bought (long) SWF at 1.5750, and cut loss at 1.5850.
Bought (long) GBP at 1.6050, RRR-/+100pts, or close profit by close. Wait to buy JPY at 103.00, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.5900, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 100.00, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.5700, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6300, RRR-50/+200pts, or close profit by close.
 

November 19, 1999
As analyzed last week, DLR index both continued its advance and paused just under its 101.50 resistance. At this juncture, however, a strong bearish divergence is looming up to warn against the scenario for a further gaining dollar. Instead, a non-major dollar pull back is very much in the game for the coming week. The area of support on the DLR index chart is the 100.00-99.40 zone, which is likely the place where both buyers and sellers will feel comfortable. As such, the European majors will offer buying opportunities next week at GBP's current level of low 1.6100s (and 1.6000), SWF's high 1.5500s (and 1.5700), and EUR's low 1.0300s (and 1.0200). JPY on the other hand is resting just under its 106.00 resistance, but looking poised to probe above it to reach for 108.00 again. AUD is holding up just above its .6400 support, showing signs of neither going up nor down definitively. However, its .6400 support happens to border on a rising trendline support as well, making it and the lower .6300 a tempting buy attraction. CAD continues to weigh heavily on its broken support trendline; a definitive day close below its 1.4600 will be a sure sign of its going for 1.4500-1.4470 support zone. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned.

Bought (long) SWF at 1.5600, and took profit at 1.5550.
Hold SWF's 1.5500 buy, RRR-200/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Hold GBP's 1.6200 buy, RRR-200/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.6100, RRR-/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.5600, RRR-/+100pts, or close profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at .6300, RRR-/+100pts, or close profit by close.
 

November 12, 1999
Judging from DLR index chart alone, USD is to hang on its gains this week by probing into higher grounds next week.  However, its anticipated advance is expected to peak no higher than its 101.50 resistance level.  The rest of the majors would most like maneuver around this scenario; that is, first weakening to dollar and then recovering against it from newer levels.  With the exception of SWF (which we plan to sell/short in dollar's favor), we will hold on to our existing JPY and GBP buy (long) positions and are prepared to weather out the "final" leg of dollar advance according to following plans.  Detailed entry/exit points are illustrated in the Weekly Charts page.  Other day trade plans will be announced with the coming Daily Shows.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned.

Bought (long) SWF at 1.5600, and took profit at 1.5550.
Bought GBP at 1.6200, RRR-230/+100pts, or take profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.6100 and 1.6000, risking all below 1.5970, or take profit at +100pts or by close.
Wait to sell JPY at 104.30 and 103.30, risking all below 103.00, or take profit at +100pts or by close.

 

November 5, 1999
The latest US monthly job data released today shows that nonfarm payrolls gained 310,000 in October.  The unemployment rate, which had been expected to remain at 4.2%, dropped to 4.1%.  Both DOW and dollar gained on the news, the latter most noticeably against JPY.  In all, this week has been a very dollar-positive week, so much so that it forced ATS-3 trend signals to change from buying to selling GBP and SWF.  For JPY, however, ATS-3 still remains decidedly buying.  Thus, for the coming week, our strategy will have to switch to selling the European majors and buying JPY.  It has also been another nose bleeding week for us as the surging dollar strength wiped out all our dollar-short positions and recent gains.  However, the month is still young and it should give us plenty of time to recover.

Although decidedly trending downward, JPY has moved high enough to make a run at 108.00 early next week.  Our near term signals are favoring a yen buy already.  We will start buying JPY at 107.00 and then at 108.00.  Buyers are well advised to halt their entries for GBP and SWF until they are quoted at 1.6000 and 1.5900.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned.

Bought JPY at 106.00, RRR-100/+50pts .
Wait to buy JPY at 107.00 and 108.00, taking +100pts each or by close, risking above 109.00.
Wait to sell JPY at 105.30, RRR-/+100pts, or take profit by close.
Wait to sell AUD at .6450, RRR-/+100pts, or take profit by close.
Wait to sell GBP at 1.6330, RRR-/+100pts, or take profit by close.
Wait to sell SWF at 1.5400, RRR-/+100pts, or take profit by close.
Wait to buy GBP at 1.6000, RRR-/+200pts, or take profit by close.
Wait to buy SWF at 1.5900, RRR-/+200pts, or take profit by close.
Wait to buy AUD at .6300, RRR-/+100pts, or take profit by close.